Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s decision to call a referendum that could lead to the energy-rich province separating from Canada has angered both sides of the debate and triggered calls to challenge her leadership.
For decades, aggrieved Albertans have accused the distant federal capital Ottawa of unfairly holding back their province from reaping the rewards of its natural resources, and some have wanted to break away.
Yet while Smith has repeatedly said she wants Canada to remain united, the issue of separation has gained traction in the past year, partly thanks to her own actions.
That leaves her walking a political tightrope, with each side complaining she’s doing the work of the other.
“Federalists are not happy about having the referendum at all,” said Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary. “Separatists aren’t happy with this formulation of the question … it doesn’t take them to the place where they want to go.”
Last week Smith decided to pose her own question for a public vote that she believes will avoid court challenges: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
That question will be added to the ballot in a previously scheduled plebiscite on October 19, alongside nine others focusing on immigration and constitutional issues. At the same time, Smith has also made it easier to trigger referendums, by lowering the threshold for citizen petitions that force public votes.
Two rival petitions — one pro-Canada and one against — collectively claim more than 700,000 signatures to tackle the issue, but legal and procedural hurdles derailed them from triggering a referendum.
A legal challenge from several First Nations thwarted the separatist petition’s signatures from being verified because the government didn’t adequately consult them. Smith promised an appeal, but said calling a binding referendum this year was not feasible, and it would have been struck down in a matter of weeks.
Smith came to power in 2022 partly by harnessing a populist, anti-establishment sentiment which contributed to toppling her predecessor, Jason Kenney. Her ruling United Conservative Party’s voters are twice as likely to support secession as Albertans overall, according to the Angus Reid Institute, and separatist sentiment is highest generally in rural parts of the province.
However, Smith’s party didn’t run on or mention a referendum in the last provincial election campaign. Her oft-repeated stance is that she wants to strengthen Alberta’s sovereignty while remaining in Canada — something she was booed for saying at her party’s last convention.
Some have compared her position to that of Britain’s then-Prime Minister David Cameron ahead of the Brexit referendum, which he embraced as a way to manage a vocal faction of his ruling party while not wanting the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.
Smith has expressed sympathy for separatists, but on Friday (Calgary time) she said she would campaign to stay in the country.
“I believe Canada is working better every day and that it can work even better in the future,” Smith said. “I have seen enough from the directional change that we have with the new prime minister who is prepared to work with us. He is prepared to give Albertans hope again.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney, in his first remarks since Smith’s announcement, noted his government was working on getting a new oil pipeline built from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific coast. This would increase access to Asian markets, diversifying the export opportunity for a province that holds most of the country’s known oil reserves and exports millions of barrels daily, almost all to the United States.
“Canada is the greatest country in the world, but it can be better, and we are working on making it better. We’re working with Alberta on making it better,” Carney said while touring the renovation of the Canadian parliament buildings.
Smith’s rapport with Carney marks a sea-change after her combative relationship with his predecessor Justin Trudeau, who led Canada for a decade until last year and passed stricter environmental laws. Both Trudeau and Carney are Liberals, but Carney has relaxed some of those rules and is encouraging investment in extracting natural resources.
Smith’s move has enraged both sides, for either going too far or not far enough.
Jeffrey Rath, a leader of the Stay Free Alberta separatist movement, called it an insult to those seeking independence, and encouraged supporters to join Smith’s United Conservative Party and call for a meeting to challenge her leadership.
Cam Davies, leader of the pro-independence Republican Party of Alberta, agreed and called Smith’s referendum question “spineless.”
A rival group called Forever Canada, led by former Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, garnered more than 400,000 signatures supporting the province staying within Canada. He said Smith’s question was “going to do nothing but cause a lot of harm to Alberta” by “prolonging a very painful process.”
Calgary Chamber of Commerce chief executive Deborah Yedlin said the process would “further undermine regulatory certainty and jeopardise future economic advancement”.
“People, businesses, capital and opportunity will leave our province – and never come back,” Yedlin said.
Yedlin and others have previously pointed to how companies permanently abandoned Montreal for Toronto when separatism in the French-speaking province of Quebec flared in past decades.
Leaders of the two largest cities in the region echoed those concerns. Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas said at a press conference on Friday that the campaign would be “divisive” and “shooting ourselves in the foot,” while Edmonton Mayor Andrew Knack on X called it a “reckless” move.
Chiefs of the Treaty 8 First Nations in Alberta, who were integral in the legal challenge against the separatist petition, said they “continue to raise serious concerns” about the government’s willingness to uphold constitutional obligations and their treaty rights.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said the framing of Smith’s question could attract a protest vote.
“It might lower the apparent stakes, making it perhaps easier for some voters to think they can send a political message to the rest of the country without taking the risk of leading the province to the point of no return,” he said.
A possible future referendum was likely to lose because support for separation was slightly less than 30 per cent, though campaigns did matter, Béland said.
A “yes” vote in a referendum would not trigger independence. Negotiations with the federal government would have to take place.
Quebec has had a sovereignty movement for decades, though polls suggest that support for breaking away from Canada is at a low ebb. US President Donald Trump’s trade war has spurred an upwelling of Canadian patriotism.
However, the separatist Parti Quebecois is leading in most polls in the French-speaking province, and is promising a referendum on the secession from Canada within its first term.
Bloomberg, AP
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