Carlton have greater flexibility than Collingwood to reset their list at the end of 2026 as the two powerhouse rivals head into Thursday night’s blockbuster outside the top 10 after five matches.
Both have top-10 aspirations, with the Magpies aiming even higher after a premiership and two preliminary final losses in the past four seasons. Carlton made the preliminary final in 2023 when Collingwood won the flag, but have slid since.
Neither team has beaten a genuine top-four contender this season and both will need to transition their lists as they move into a new era.
The Blues have 17 players out of contract at the end of 2026 after securing midfielders Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith on long-term deals in March while also having two first-round picks in each of the next two seasons.
Carlton are nervously awaiting the release of new draft rules, which will determine the draft price they will need to pay to secure highly rated father-son Cody Walker, who showed explosive speed out of the middle when playing for the AIS-AFL Academy against North Melbourne VFL team on Sunday.
Two competition sources speaking on condition of anonymity suggested changes may not be finalised until as late as May after heavy lobbying from the Blues and Port Adelaide in recent weeks gave the AFL Commission pause for thought.
When Walker joins Harry Dean (who the Blues spent picks No.9 and 11 on last year to match a bid at No.3) and Smith on the list at season’s end, regardless of price, Carlton will have added a top-five rated player in each of the past three seasons. They also have put 70 matches into pick No.11 Ollie Hollands, who is yet to start discussions with the Blues on a contract beyond 2026.
Hollands is the only Blues player 22 or under with significant exposed form who is uncontracted, although young tall Hudson O’Keeffe is showing good signs, as did defender Harry O’Farrell before he suffered a knee injury last season.
O’Farrell was one 11 players to make their Carlton debut since the start of 2025.
Similarly to the Blues, Collingwood have 14 players out of contract, although veteran Jack Crisp is likely to hit a trigger mid-season to play on in 2027. Among those coming out of contract are relatively inexpensive but still high-performing club greats Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe.
They do not have a player contracted beyond 2030 (Carlton have Walsh signed until 2034, Smith until 2030 and Jacob Weitering signed until 2031), however champion midfielder Nick Daicos is locked in until 2029 and his equally consistent brother Josh until 2030.
Two Next Generation Academy graduates in Zac McCarthy and Jai Saxena arrived via last year’s draft, but neither were rated above pick No.55.
The Magpies were unfortunate to miss the opportunity to gain priority access to Gabriel Patterson, a member of the AIS/AFL Academy, in this year’s draft as his father Stephen’s career at Collingwood finished on 96 matches, just four short of the eligibility criteria of 100 games for father-sons.
Although Walker and potentially Lukas Koutoufides (the son of Anthony) might eat into the significant draft capital they gained when trading out Charlie Curnow, the Blues have one more first and second-round pick than Collingwood at season’s end and one more first-round pick than the Magpies in 2027.
Collingwood’s premiership and preliminary final finishes have given them little access to the top end of the national draft since Craig McRae’s arrival in 2022.
However, they also traded out their first-round picks for Lachie Schultz and Dan Houston, meaning the Magpies have secured just one player (Ed Allan at pick No.19 in 2022) inside the top 20 picks of the draft in the past four national drafts.
Their decision to trade in Schultz and Houston for future first-round picks meant they locked themselves out of the bountiful 2024 national draft, which they could have potentially entered as early as pick No.14, giving them access to young players such as Murphy Reid, Jobe Shanahan, Jonty Faull or Joe Berry.
Allan is among their out-of-contract players, with talks yet to begin as he remains in and out of the side while Jakob Ryan (one match), category-B rookie Wil Parker, and mature-aged midfielder Lachie Sullivan also remain unsigned.
It’s hardly an embarrassment of riches, with five players making their debuts with the Magpies since the start of last season.
This year’s debuting pair Oscar Steene and Angus Anderson are 22, but showed promise. Roan Steele was a mature-aged player at 23 on debut in 2025 and has cemented a spot in the team, while Charlie West and Will Hayes are at the beginning of their careers.
West and Ryan were both injured in their debut matches and are yet to play a second game, with Tew Jiath also not progressing past his first match yet.
Carlton are more likely to tinker with free agency this season as they build their list, rather than chase big names. Key backs such as Jordon Butts (whose dad Gerard played with Carlton) and Buku Khamis (who they unsuccessfully tried to trade in last season) are being monitored but developing Dean and O’Farrell alongside Weitering is a priority.
Collingwood are more attuned to chasing big names and are desperate to land a key forward, a situation they were in during 2018 before the astute recruiting and coaching of now departed Brody Mihocek.
Ben King is more likely than not to sign a two-year deal to remain at the Gold Coast, while lesser lights, free agents Joel Amartey and Mitch Lewis, and the Suns’ Jed Walter will also come under consideration. They will enter Zak Butters race but are long shots to secure him.
The Pies have two flags since Carlton’s most recent in 1995 so are ahead of the Blues, but when it comes to assessing what lies ahead, the monogram is in front.
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