The White House has reportedly issued a directive to its staff prohibiting the use of non-public information to place bets on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The email was sent on March 24, a day following Donald Trump announcing a five-day pause on his threat to attack Iranian power plants energy and infrastructure. Meanwhile, the warning was prompted by media reports suggesting government officials might be leveraging insider knowledge for financial gain on betting sites.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle dismissed the allegations as baseless, asserting that there is no evidence of such activity. Ingle underscored that all federal employees are already bound by strict ethical guidelines that forbid profiting from insider information.
“The only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people,” he added.
On the other hand, major platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, have been contacted for comment, while the administration maintains that its sole focus remains the “best interest of the American people.”
Polymarket came under intense scrutiny after a gambler made nearly half a million dollars on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicola Maduro just before it was officially announced. It is uncertain who placed the bet, as the anonymous account was identified only by a blockchain string of letters and numbers.
This recent incident has sparked concerns about individuals receiving special benefits from insider information regarding US military operations. Given the current situations, prediction markets-which host more than $44bn in trades-have seen a surge in interest. While these platforms mostly involve sports, they have become increasingly popular over the past years for other bets, such as whether the US central bank will cut rates or the results of local elections.
“Corruption and exploitation are thriving right now within the gaps and loopholes of prediction markets,” told US Senator Andy Kim from New Jersey. “This manipulation leaves the select few winning big, at the expense of working Americans,” he said.
According to the BBC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees derivatives markets, including prediction platforms, as Democratic leaders introduce legislation to ban markets related to war or military action.
