The Bureau of Meteorology have released its long-range weather forecast for winter, and it’s forecast to be a lot warmer than usual as the threat of El Nino looms.
Despite temperatures beginning to drop across the country as the winter chill settles in, the conditions are forecast to be a lot warmer than usual.
While those living on the southern and eastern coasts are usually soaked throughout winter, the bureau’s long-range weather forecast expects Australians living in the southeast will largely be keeping their umbrellas at home.
It predicts rainfall for the three-month period between June and August to be below average, particularly for South East Queensland, eastern NSW, most of Victoria, southern South Australia, eastern Tasmania as well as the western parts of Western Australia.
Climatologist Felicity Gamble told NewsWire there was a “very high chance” of warmer than median temperatures this winter.
“When we look at the chances of seeing unusually warm temperatures, that means temperatures in that top 20 per cent of the historical range,” she said.
“We’re actually seeing very high chances of reaching those sorts of temperatures as well during winter.”
The only region anticipated to experience a throughly wet winter is western Tasmania, with a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall.
“The dry signal over the three‑month period is heavily driven by stronger probabilities of below‑average rainfall emerging later in the season,” the bureau said.
Warm, dry winter
It’s not just going to be a drier winter – it’s also probably going to be warmer than usual.
April was warmer than average for much of the southern half of the country, the bureau said, with less rainfall than usual.
This will continue for the next few months, the bureau predicts.
“So that would mean generally clear skies and that generally brings warmer-than-average days as well,” Ms Gamble told NewsWire.
The areas most likely to be impacted by increasing daytime temperatures are Tasmania, Victoria, NSW, South East Queensland, southeastern South Australia and western parts of Western Australia.
The mercury isn’t going to plummet as much during the night either, with overnight temperatures expected to be above normal for most of the country.
El Nino threatens ski season
The land isn’t the only place where temperatures are spiking.
Sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are extremely warm for this time of year, meaning a greater chance of El Nino approaching.
El Nino usually happens when sea temperatures are substantially above average, driving a shift in atmospheric circulation.
In short, this means less rainfall and warmer temperatures.
“An El Nino does typically mean warmer than the average daytime temperatures across much of Australia as well,” Ms Gamble said.
Because there’s less rainfall, there’s a shift in temperature extremes and increased fire danger in the country’s southeast.
El Nino’s arrival may also impact the ski season, driving decreased alpine snow depths.
“It just comes down to one or two well-timed cold snaps that bring a good dump of snow,” Ms Gamble said.
“But if we don’t see any of those key events that bring that snow, then generally with warmer-than-average temperatures across the season and low rainfall, it’s generally not going to produce a good or successful snow season.”
But not all hope is lost for those hoping to hit the slopes.
“During winter … it doesn’t rule out the chance of having the odd cold snap that does bring those frosts or bring those cool nights,” she said.
“It just means across the season it’s likely to be warmer than average.”
