The trouble with taking US President Donald Trump at his word is that he is not a man of his word.
His increasingly capricious utterances on his Middle East misadventure are not only unbelievable, but have the tone of a bad-tempered toddler who blames everyone but himself for the shambolic mess he has created.
One day, he says the war is won, another day it is not a war but an excursion. He tells traditional allies he does not need them, then they’re cowards. Subsequently, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not a core objective, in fact, Iran should “open up the Strait of Trump, I mean Hormuz”; and “we don’t need” it anyway.
Trump’s ever-changing rhetoric is described as “weaponised uncertainty” in Washington, where Stockholm syndrome has clearly set in. US media reports have him sending troops in on Good Friday or next week.
But the reality is that a pattern has emerged of threat followed by calming assurance, a combination that is destabilising the Middle East and the rest of the world.
Hiding behind America’s facade of the world’s largest petroleum producer, Trump now seems to be preparing to walk away from his war with Iran without a clear resolution in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving other countries to escort oil tankers or force the crucial shipping passage open, despite the vast economic impact of the waterway’s effective closure.
The future is hugely uncertain. Big question marks remain about Iran’s attitude to continue blocking the strait should Trump live up to his TACO nickname (Trump Always Chickens Out) and quit. Nobody knows how long the pain will last, but it is certain to stretch far ahead and hopefully involve diplomacy rather than weapons.
The Herald’s North Asia correspondent, Lisa Visentin, reported how China got the jump on the crisis by ramping up oil stockpiles, going flat out on renewables and incentivising motorists to go electric. The surge in the take-up of green technology following Trump’s attack on Iran has turbo-charged China’s EV industry, with Australian enquiries up 50 per cent in five weeks.
Trump’s fickle, ill-thought-through war, coupled with his economic bullying, has alienated much global support, with many friendly nations second-guessing strategic alliances and trade agreements. The effects of his Middle East gambit have alerted the world to the pressing need to wean itself off imported fossil fuels.
As Australia wrestles with how to deal with the growing crisis, Premier Chris Minns said there was also an urgent requirement for energy independence and called for more electric vehicles and charging stations to reduce the nation’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil. “We have to consider the next conflict, and anyone who thinks this is the last war in the Middle East is a complete mug – we have to start thinking about the future,” Minns said.
Let’s hope this is not just talk. Australia needs to heed the lessons of this crisis and set ourselves up for a more independent energy future.
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