Aamer Madhani and Jon Gambrell
Washington: President Donald Trump has started the fourth week of his war against Iran by offering the world some guarded optimism that the US could soon be winding operations down, a claim that has drawn a muted response from the Iranian regime but temporarily calmed the nerves of global markets.
Trump said on Monday (US time) that he was holding off on attacking Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing “major points of agreement” with Iran.
He said the Islamic Republic wanted “to make a deal” and claimed that US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had held talks on Sunday with an Iranian leader. He did not say who the Iranian leader was, but confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei was not involved in any negotiations.
Iranian officials have dismissed Trump’s comments as a ploy to buy time “to reduce energy prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans”. But reports from US media outlet CBS News, citing a senior unnamed Iranian foreign ministry official, said Iranian officials were reviewing US messages sent through various mediators.
Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan have all been named as potential mediators, with a Gulf diplomat telling the Associated Press that Egypt and Turkey were leading de-escalation efforts.
“For now, it appears they managed to avert an energy catastrophe” that would result if Trump attacked Iran’s energy facilities and Iran responded, said the diplomat, who was not authorised to speak with journalists and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry has declined to comment on whether that country had relayed messages between Iran and the US. However, Turkish officials have confirmed the country’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has spoken to his counterparts from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and the European Union, as well as US officials, as part of efforts to end the war.
Meanwhile, an Egyptian official said the US and Iran exchanged messages through Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan at the weekend, aiming to avert strikes on energy infrastructure. The official was not authorised to speak to the media and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Trump has also had a conversation with Pakistan’s chief of army staff, Asim Munir, about the conflict with Iran and talks with the country, a person familiar with the matter said.
Pakistan is leveraging close ties fostered with Trump together with its longstanding bonds with neighbour Iran and other key players such as Saudi Arabia. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also spoken to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and US news outlet Axios has reported that mediating countries were trying to convene a meeting in Islamabad with Witkoff, Kushner and possibly US Vice President JD Vance, citing an unidentified Israeli official.
“All I’m saying is we are in the throes of a real possibility of making a deal,” Trump said during an extended exchange with reporters before boarding Air Force One on Monday (US time) to make his way from his home in Florida to an event in Memphis, Tennessee.
“And I think, if I were a betting man, I’d bet for it. But again, I’m not guaranteeing anything.”
The turnaround from Trump served to drive down oil prices and offered financial markets a reprieve from the recent sabre-rattling by both the US and Iran. However, hopes of de-escalation may be shortlived amid reports that Trump’s Gulf allies – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – are preparing to enter the conflict.
The Wall Street Journal has reported, citing people familiar with the situation, that Saudi Arabia has agreed to give the US military access to King Fahd Air Base, an apparent reversal after saying its bases couldn’t be used to attack its longtime rival.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates closed an Iranian-owned hospital and club – undercutting a key source of support for Tehran. Videos apparently also showed that some missiles used in attacks on Iran were launched from Bahrain, the report said.
If Trump were to end the war now, he would be walking away from the fight when he still hasn’t fully achieved his stated objectives, some regional analysts have noted.
Over the course of the past few weeks, Trump has offered shifting reasons for launching the war as Democrats accuse him of needlessly shaking the global economy and polls at home show Americans are divided along party lines about the conflict.
But the president has settled on a list of goals he has said must be achieved, including degrading Iran’s missile capability, destroying its defence industrial base, eliminating the Iranian navy, preventing Iran from ever acquiring nuclear weapons, and securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said on Monday that the US would retrieve Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a potential agreement with the Islamic Republic, but he offered no details on how, beyond saying the US military would “take it ourselves”.
The US and Israeli air bombardment has made progress on some of those goals. But analysts say Trump would strain credulity if he were to claim, at this point, that he had made good on achieving his aims – particularly definitively ending Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb.
The US and nuclear watchdogs believe some 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium remains buried beneath rubble at three key Iranian nuclear sites that were badly damaged by a limited US military operation last June during the 12-day Israel-Iran war.
“Trump’s war choice has not accomplished his military goals,” Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East negotiator who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on X.
Miller noted that Iran is still able to attack Gulf allies and effectively control the Strait of Hormuz. “No nukes; no enrichment, good luck with that. A singularly incompetent use of America’s power.”
Meanwhile, more US troops are still on the way and Trump has sought to leave plenty of space for him to take another abrupt turn.
Trump ordered additional US troops to the region last week as the US administration weighed possible action to take control of the strait that would allow the safe passage of tankers bringing oil from the oil-rich Gulf nations to Asia.
“We are witnessing how a conflict that began over politics and security is moving to be defined by energy and economics,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank.
“It’s hard to ignore the logic inherent in the president’s own commentary, which both calms markets but also buys time for Marines to arrive.”
AP, with staff reporter and Bloomberg
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