Life in the desert can get very uncomfortable without electricity. No fridge. No airconditioning. No social media. But after three days of dehydration – you’re dead.
These are the stakes of the new Gulf War.
US President Donald Trump is threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s electricity supply.
“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” he posted to social media yesterday.
Iran’s parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has retaliated.
“Immediately after the power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted, the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed in an irreversible manner,” he posted overnight.
That means oil production facilities, transport hubs and water desalination plants.
And water is more precious than oil in the Middle East.
“Striking water infrastructure and critical equipment in Gulf States could cause them to lose the majority of their drinking water in days and face national water crises lasting months,” warns Atlantic Council geostrategist Ginger Matchett.
“There is a serious risk that a deliberate series of strikes on desalination plants could deepen regional instability and trigger further humanitarian disasters or migration crises in The Gulf.”
And they’ve already been targeted.
The stuff of life
Iran has stopped oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz for all but a few friendly nations, including Russia, China and India.
This is choking Gulf Cooperative Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia) economies. And cut 20 per cent of global supplies.
But sensible nations have long held 90-day fuel reserves to help tide them over an emergency.
The 60 million people inhabiting the oil-rich desert kingdoms surrounding the Persian Gulf are equally dependent on imported food. About 85 per cent of everything they eat must transit the Strait of Hormuz.
These states have sensibly established significant food reserves to tide them over in an emergency. The UAE has reportedly stockpiled enough for four to six months. Saudi Arabia has four months of grain (of which it imports 100 per cent of its consumption) in massive silo facilities.
Then there’s water.
No Gulf State has a permanently running river. All rely on underground aquifers – and these are running dry. So they’ve used their oil wealth to build up an enormous network of desalination plants.
Kuwait and Bahrain get 90 per cent of their drinking water from desalination. In Qatar, it’s closer to 99 per cent. At any given time, analysts estimate there is between one and two days’ worth of supply in these systems.
“The consequences of disruption would be immediate,” University of London Middle East analyst Sanam Mahoozi warns.
“If a major desalination plant was out of action, governments could face the prospect of emergency water rationing for millions of residents within a matter of days. Hospitals, sanitation systems, food production and industry would all be affected simultaneously.”
Doomsday threat
“The economies of the Persian Gulf countries depend on oil and natural gas. Their populations depend on desalinated water,” states Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) food and water analyst David Michael.
The oil shock has dominated global headlines.
But water fears were realised as early as March 7, little more than a week into the new Gulf War.
Desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain were hit.
Bahrain’s interior ministry accused Iran of attacking its plant with drones, cutting supplies to 30 villages. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi retorted that the United States had attacked a purification facility on Qeshm Island.
Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have since also reported damage to some of their facilities.
The implications are severe.
“(These attacks) offer a glimpse at the potential danger if this infrastructure were intentionally and systematically targeted,” warns Matchett. “Without such technology … roughly 100 million individuals in the Middle East would have no regular access to drinking water”.
That’s why The Gulf States are taking the threat so seriously.
“The ripple effects would extend far beyond drinking water,” adds Mahoozi.
“Sanitation systems would begin to fail, public health risks would rise, and economic activity could slow dramatically. Tourism, industry and services – all pillars of Gulf States’ economies – depend on stable water supplies.”
No one attack can stop desalinated water from flowing.
There are about 5000 plants scattered across the Middle East. Some 400 of these feed from the Persian Gulf, within easy reach of Iran.
But a small number of mega plants produce the bulk of this water. And these 56 facilities mostly feed the Persian Gulf’s megacities.
“This concentration and proximity to Iran makes The Gulf’s desalination infrastructure particularly vulnerable as the exchange of missiles and drones intensifies,” Matrchett concludes.
Global game of chicken
President Trump was unprepared for Iran’s strategic retaliation.
“Look what happened. In the last two weeks, they weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” he told reporters last week. “So, they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”
Now, Iran is refusing to buckle to his 48-hour surrender demand.
“The Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not be opened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt,” the Revolutionary Guard threatened in a statement overnight.
And Tehran is blaming Washington for the looming water war.
“The US set this precedent, not Iran,” Foreign Minister Abbas accused earlier this month. He was referring to the attack on Qeshm Island.
Meanwhile, The Gulf States are caught in the middle of a war they didn’t want.
“Cities such as Doha, Dubai, Manama, and Kuwait City would not be possible without desalination,” argues CSIS analyst Michel.
“Qatar and Bahrain, in particular, also rely heavily on desalination for industry, too, devoting over half their desalinated water production to sectors such as petrochemicals and data centres.”
Simply reducing their water supplies will be devastating.
Tehran knows this.
“Iran can neither defeat the United States and Israel militarily nor prevent them from striking Iranian territory at will,” notes Michel.
“Iran might come to calculate that threatening GCC water supplies could provide an effective asymmetric strategy for waging an existential struggle for regime survival.”
Closing the Strait of Hormuz has throttled global energy and fertiliser markets.
Striking Gulf State oil and water infrastructure will further raise the international stakes for President Trump.
Tehran’s goal, says Michel, is to increase “the costs of continuing conflict for governments, economies, and publics far beyond the Persian Gulf. The goal is not military victory but strategic leverage in a war of political attrition in which Iran believes it can outlast the United States.”
