Neil Evans
Track good 4 and rail true
RACE 1
8. Flirtation is a three-year-old filly by the late great Snitzel on debut for the home track Messara production line, and was strong through the line winning a recent trial. Gear changes in play, and she’s drawn to get an economical run. The one to beat. 13. Tennessee River is a two-year-old filly by Headwater, and a big betting watch on debut behind two progressive trial wins. 3. Head Kahuna is trained on the course and beaten all but the winner in three runs this prep. Gets blinkers added and draws to get a cosy run, although this is a tougher assignment. 6. Splash Of Steel is another local, drawn inside and returning off an 11 week break; while keeping safe stablemate 7. Fannoir that resumes off an eye-catching trial win. Trifecta and first four punters should include 12. Yasena second-up at massive odds and is not without a chance.
How to play it: Flirtation to win.
RACE 2
2. Agraffe Rocket has plenty of raw ability, and is well placed here first-up as a gelding for the leading Kris Lees stable. Improved sharply to win the second of two truly run trials, despite sitting wide with no cover for the trip, and drew to get a soft run with cover off the speed. Stablemate 1. Rustemo has a better than 50 per cent place record from nine starts, and resumes behind two trials. 5. Leovanni is an honest local that hasn’t raced since late last August, but cruised home to win the second of two spaced trials, and drew to get plenty of cover. 10. Royal Botanic is the third of the accepted Lees’ runners and was close-up at Newcastle a fortnight ago, and tracking to peak at her third start. 3. Twice Az Cool at big odds, and 8. I Am Overs third-up with a significant jockey change, head the rest.
How to play it: Agraffe Rocket to win
RACE 3
The market will be a solid indicator with Randwick-based import and well bred 3. Mister Rizz shapes nicely to hit the ground running down under, despite a 31-week break since tackling Group 3 company in the UK. Ran into a place first-up last prep in a much deeper Listed race in Europe over 2000m. Fitted to run this out fresh with two improving trials up to 1200m, and with multiple gear changes in play, he will relish the long sweeping run home at this course in a race with a long tail. 12. Bird Whistle has to tuck in from a tough draw, but is trained here, and will relish dropping back significantly from two handy efforts at Group 3 level. 1. Currumbin Alley is fit and draws the fence, and can run into the minor money at double figure odds. 10. Vltava can run a race fourth-up; while 13. Blue Eyed Brigid from a soft draw can add plenty of value into exotic bets second-up.
How to play it: Mister Rizz to win.
RACE 4
9. Iminastate is a two-year-old colt by Sword Of State in the Freedman yard at Rosehill and can run a big race on debut at good odds. Love the progression in the second of two trials where he found the line late despite getting little or no room between runners over the final furlong. Looks very genuine, and should take an instant liking to this big course. 2. Dr Hook is trained here, but was no match for the winner in a feature sprint at Muswellbrook a fortnight ago after being heavily backed, and that horse has since disappointed in Saturday company at Gosford. Under the odds here over further. 4. Lord Elrond worked home nicely first-up behind a smart youngster at Wagga, and naturally can improve over a bit more ground. Include 3. Haras, a lightly raced home track filly resuming off two progressive trials; and another first starter 13. Halcyon Belle, a filly by Harry Angel that won the second of two trials, in trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Iminastate to win.
RACE 5
7. Jasira is a talented home track filly that represents terrific value, stepping up from an easy kill in a weak country maiden. That said, she only missed narrowly in a deeper affair over the Albury carnival when resuming off a lengthy break. Showing promise, and is right up to this assignment from a handy on-speed draw. 10. Chains Of Love is a smart filly trained on the course, and will likely jump favourite despite drawing wide. Was dominant in landing her maiden as the hottest of favourites here last spring, and was immediately put away with bigger targets in mind. Looked good in winning a recent trial, but still wouldn’t be diving into too short a price in a big field. 2. Hanuman reaches a stronger race fourth-up, but is going well enough to run into the money. 11. Starvena draws wide, but is a big market watch off a flashing debut win at Muswellbrook as a well backed favourite. 6. Sir Herridah fourth-up, and dominant second start maiden winner 16. Rubelin, head the rest.
How to play it: Jasira to win.
RACE 6
8. Pontevedra is set to return for a second prep and only his fourth start in style as a gelding for the top local stable in a very open race. Won two straight to cap his initial campaign last spring, and has been readied with two strong trials. Drawn to settle back with cover and be superior over the final 250m. 12. Oakfield Utah is a rival home tracker unbeaten from two country runs, and can also make a statement fresh from the inside draw. 5. Lighthouse Lass is hard fit, drops back from Midway 72 grade, and drawn to get a soft run. 14. Brutal Belle is a tough mare rising in class, and hunting a third win from five starts this campaign. 17. Arapawa, a stablemate of the top selection, is a knockout chance fourth-up. 1. Next Gen is also trained here and can bounce back on a sharp class drop after being beaten out of sight at Flemington on Anzac Day; while 3. Helen’s Way is a lightly raced and sharp second-up improver.
How to play it: Pontevedra to win.
RACE 7
1. Tavi Time is primed to peak third-up in the Cup at good odds after hitting the line late from a wide draw in the deeper Group 3 Hawkesbury Cup. A four-time winner over the mile, he also landed his only prior start at this course, and was also a Group 3 winner at Randwick on Boxing Day over 2000m. Drawn to get plenty of cover well off speed, and with any sort of clear run over the final 350m he can take an already impressive career strike rate to nearly 40 per cent from 31 starts. 6. Churchill’s Choice must be value coming off that upset win in that feature Cup at Hawkesbury when charging home. 18. Formal Display is the big query in the race shooting for four wins on the bounce. Needs a couple of withdrawals to get a run, and has drawn the outside barrier in a big field, but has tactical speed, and was dominant in winning the Tamworth Cup three weeks back. 12. Hellsing is hard fit, and got back to winning ways claiming a BM 100 at Randwick on Anzac day after tracking the speed. More depth here, but he does slip down in the weights. 2. Amor Victorious draws low and can fill the minor money second-up. 7. Depth Of Character and 8. Encap are the best of the rest.
How to play it: Tavi Time to win.
RACE 8
3. Dances With Hooves is a tough mare possesses a big finish, and way over the odds second-up in another wide and open contest. Loved the way she attacked the line late in open company at Tamworth, and she’s already shown a real liking for this track. Very underrated with a 25 per cent winning strike rate from 24 starts. 15. Shotgun Bella is a progressive mare and will be hard to hold out from this draw having been placed in her last two against tougher metro opposition. 10. Polsen Point was only beaten a length third-up at Randwick by Nobler and then won his next start in Saturday company at Gosford. 17. Solitario is a talented home tracker, and a big threat if he gets a run. Swept home to win a CL3 three starts back, and again charged home from the back to miss narrowly last start in a BM 68 at Newcastle. 7. Hell Of A Fox hard fit and reloading off a Federal win in Canberra, and 9. Kranich has been running into the money all prep in high grade country races; can both add value into trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Dances With Hooves each way
BEST BETS: R2 2. AGRAFFE ROCKET; R7 1. TAVI TIME
BEST VALUE: R6 8. PONTEVEDRA
Supplied by Racing NSW
