Today, nearly one in four women aged 18 to 45 say they will not have children, while most women who do intend to have kids say they will have smaller families than earlier generations.
The nation’s fertility rate, the expected births per woman, peaked in 2008 at 2.02, but it has since fallen by 25 per cent to a record low of 1.48 in 2024. No children, fewer children, smaller families.
The fertility rate is a key driver of future population and age structure. Lower fertility results in fewer workers entering the labour force over time, with consequences for workforce size, productivity growth and the tax base that is needed to support an ageing population. Exclusive polling for this masthead by the Resolve Political Monitor shows the cost of raising children, housing affordability and worries about the world’s future are causing young people to curtail their family’s size, or deterring them from parenthood.
And there’s the rub. While immigration can mitigate some productivity and labour force concerns for the nation, our polling suggests many Australians are not having the number of children they desire and, in some cases, they are having no children because of external factors such as the cost of housing, and the costs of raising children (in some Sydney suburbs, childcare fees are nearly $200 a day). There are others who we polled who are “unintentionally childless”; timing, medical issues, and simply not finding the right partner in the “fertility window”, are among the most common reasons.
That gap between how many children an Australian under 45 wants today, and the number of children they do have affects individuals, the dynamics of families and the focus of communities. It’s personal, and it’s political and cultural. Over the next two weeks, the Herald will explore the reasons for Australia’s fertility decline.
The fertility slump is not unique to Australia. Many nations in Europe and parts of Asia have had far steeper declines, triggering warnings of a “demographic winter” in some. South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate, about 0.8.
Australia should be a great place to have children, and to be a child. But at present, many people are being put off because of concerns about cost, housing and especially for women, financial security. Governments must find ways to support Australian families, by tackling cost-of-living issues, ensuring parents have access to quality and affordable childcare, and by keeping families in mind when they develop policy.
Planning policy, for example, should consider the needs of families. For those who do not want to move to the outskirts of the city with their children, policymakers should consider ways to encourage three-bedroom apartments in inner-city developments, and to ensure children have access to the green spaces they need to stay physically and mentally healthy.
Not everyone wants children, but Australia must find better ways to support those who do.
