Queensland Labor figures say they’re humbled by a sharp decline in the party’s primary support in a heartland seat, but leader Steven Miles has the backing of the party room and will not face an imminent challenge.
Labor’s Luke Richmond claimed victory in Saturday’s Stafford byelection, despite the party’s primary vote trailing the LNP’s Fiona Hammond by nearly 10 per cent.
Richmond will join parliament due to a flow of preferences, primarily from the Greens.
External pressure will heap on Miles after Labor’s margin was trimmed to about 1 per cent in the inner-northern Brisbane seat the party has largely held this century, but there is no current move within the party room for a leadership spill.
This masthead was told MPs believe it is crucial that Labor acknowledges it was sent a message in the byelection, however a low voter turnout and the absence of a One Nation candidate were cited as influences in fracturing the progressive vote.
The party room’s long-held view is that a leader needs two years in the role before the late-2028 state election, after internal analysis blamed Labor’s 2024 loss on Miles only having 10 months lead-in time before the poll.
Primary support in the mid-thirties was suggested as a key indicator for Miles to continue as opposition leader beyond Christmas. Labor’s current core support was 28 per cent, according to the most recent Resolve Strategic poll conducted for this masthead.
Miles fronted a press conference in the Stafford electorate on Sunday with Richmond and a number of Labor MPs, in a clear show of solidarity before leadership speculation dominates coverage of the byelection wash-up.
The opposition leader said he believed it was a good result under the circumstances, attributing the primary-vote swing against Labor to the absence of a One Nation candidate, as well as the unusually high number of candidates (nine).
“Labor was never under any illusions … the odds were stacked against us,” Miles said.
The former premier said he had “absolutely” every intention of leading Labor to the 2028 election.
Cameron Dick and Shannon Fentiman – who are routinely touted as leadership contenders – stood alongside Miles on Sunday and said they had complete faith in his position.
“Steven has been doing a fantastic job, and we are all united behind him,” Fentiman told reporters.
“Clearly there is more work to do, but Steven is absolutely the best person to lead us, and we are 100 per cent behind him.”
Factional heavyweight Grace Grace similarly doubled down on her loyalty to the leader.
Earlier on Sunday, Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie continued to agitate about Miles’ leadership.
“I’ve said a lot about Steven Miles and he’s goneski – he’s done like a Sunday roast,” he said.
“The results were in last night and it’s clear that Steven Miles’ leadership is in absolute tatters.
“He’s done, and the Labor Party know it, and they might as well just get on with it.”
Paul Williams, an expert in Queensland politics at Griffith University, said the tight margin was expected in Stafford due to the relative popularity of the Crisafulli government.
But he described the public narrative from Miles that momentum was growing for Labor as “nonsense”.
“[Voters] don’t buy it – they know Labor’s gone backwards from 2024,” Williams told this masthead on Sunday.
“It is very hard to see how Steven Miles would lead the party to the 2028 election. It’s a long bow to draw to ask the electorate to re-endorse him when he’s been rejected once – that’s just a standard motif in Australian politics.”
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James Hall is the News Director at the Brisbane Times. He is the former Queensland correspondent at The Australian Financial Review and has reported for a range of mastheads across the country, specialising on political and finance reporting.Connect via X or email.