Price growth across the national property market has ground to a halt, with steep falls in Melbourne and Sydney as higher interest rates, stretched affordability and the federal government’s overhaul of tax incentives combine to suppress values.
Figures from property data firm Cotality released on Monday show that through May, during which the Reserve Bank pushed official interest rates to 4.35 per cent and Treasurer Jim Chalmers outlined changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, capital city property values were static.
But in Sydney, overall values fell by 0.9 per cent to be down by 2.1 per cent over the past three months. The drop was driven by houses, with values falling by 1.1 per cent to be down 2.5 per cent since the start of the year. The median value of a Sydney house went through the $1.6 million mark in February. It has now subsided to $1.58 million.
In Melbourne, total dwelling values slipped another 0.8 per cent to be down by 2.3 per cent during the quarter. Again, the values of houses dipped further, down by 1 per cent to a median of $958,000 compared with a 0.4 per cent drop in the value of units.
The easing prices in the nation’s two largest markets contrast with most other capital cities. Perth house values jumped another 1.4 per cent, the median value being now just shy of $1.1 million. Over the past year, values in the city have soared by 25.6 per cent.
Brisbane house values increased by 0.8 per cent last month to be 18.6 per cent up over the past year, with the median value now at $1.23 million. Values also increased in Hobart, Darwin and Adelaide, although they fell in Canberra, where the median house value remains just over $1 million.
Cotality research director Tim Lawless said headwinds were growing across the entire national property market, in part due to affordability issues, as incomes failed to keep up with price growth.
He said the tightening of monetary policy and the federal government’s new tax policies would also weigh on a market that would ultimately give potential buyers more options for their money.
“The largest drop in estimated sales can be seen in Sydney and Melbourne, down 17 per cent and 14.2 per cent on levels a year ago,” he said.
“These are also the cities where advertised supply has risen to above average levels, providing more choice and better leverage for buyers.”
Regional markets are doing better than the capital cities, with values up by 0.6 per cent in May. Every region grew last month, although it was the smallest increase in a year.
Lawless said new rents lifted by another 0.6 per cent in May, pushing annual growth back to 5.9 per cent. The vacancy rate tightened to just 1.5 per cent.
He said the rental market was also likely to correct.
“With the cost of renting up about $204 a week over the past five years, renters are likely to be at or approaching a ceiling on how much they can pay, potentially driving structural changes in rental demand,” he said.
Asked about predictions that house prices could fall by as much as 10 per cent, Housing Minister Clare O’Neil said the government’s policy changes on negative gearing and capital gains were not “the main driver” of any price drops.
Interest rate increases were playing a more important role, she said, adding that Treasury modelling had forecast a 2 per cent reduction in house prices as a result of the government’s changes.
“I don’t get into a speculation about what happens with property prices in this country. What I can tell you is that our government is fiercely committed to building more homes and getting more first-time buyers,” O’Neil told the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday.
Shane Wright is a senior economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.
Matthew Knott is the foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X, Facebook or email.