Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has blamed Labor’s broken budget promises for the Coalition’s worsening polling woes and One Nation’s unyielding surge as his new campaign chief prepares to paint Pauline Hanson as a gift to Labor that will lock in left-wing governments.
After a fourth poll showed One Nation inching ahead of Labor on first-preference votes, Taylor told this masthead that Labor’s budget had “further eroded trust in the political system”, or what One Nation labels the “uni-party”.
“That’s damaging both sides of politics,” Taylor said in an interview. “We are paying part of the price for it. This is the new political world we’re in. We’ll get some space over the winter break to talk more about our positive plan.”
The Coalition’s primary vote has failed to be revived since Taylor toppled Sussan Ley in what was described as a “change or die” moment in February. Then the Coalition was tracking at record lows of 18 to 20 per cent of the primary vote in the polls, after a disaster schism in January.
Coalition MPs had predicted that Labor’s tax hikes would lead voters back to the opposition, but instead voters continue to desert them for One Nation. Despite the latest primary vote polls sinking back below 20 per cent, MPs are not yet blaming Taylor and instead are desperately searching for answers in the face of a tectonic political realignment.
Labor is worried about Hanson’s rise but the problem for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is not as urgent as it is for Taylor. Labor would still win an election decisively on current polling numbers if one were held today.
Government sources said Labor’s internal research showed One Nation supporters were not sold on the idea of Hanson actually running the country, dissuading Albanese from shutting down the idea of “Pauline for PM” when asked.
“I vote Labor, so that’s the position that I take,” Albanese said. “It’s up to others to determine what way they vote in our great democracy.”
Liberal president Tony Abbott called for calm, telling this masthead: “It will most likely be a long hard road but the Coalition is already rolling out strong positions that address the economic stagnation and societal fragmentation that’s driving the ‘neither’ vote.”
The prime minister has framed Labor’s U-turn on negative gearing and capital gains taxes as a response to rising left- and-right wing populist anger about living standards and the social contract. But various polls have shown the budget has been unpopular and Albanese is hoping to rush through his bills with minimal scrutiny to avoid a messy debate over the details, and swing back to talking about home ownership.
Taylor said his budget-reply speech – which included a popular move to index tax brackets and a more contested measure to deny welfare for permanent residents – would have been viewed as “completely revolutionary” in a previous era.
“Our strength has to be our economic credibility – that’s my strength,” Taylor said.
“I’ve turned around industries, I’ve turned around businesses, I’ve reshaped the growth of industries through my career. I understand how to do this, and you know that’s where I’ve come from, and I just don’t think One Nation or Pauline have that economic credibility.”
Taylor said it was becoming clearer that Hanson was targeting Coalition seats rather than Labor ones. “If you want to get rid of a rotten Labor government, you’ll have to vote Coalition because Pauline is targeting Coalition seats.”
Taylor’s new critique of Hanson’s economic credentials come after a week of policy fumbles and confusion on Hanson’s part about becoming prime minister.
Opposition sources familiar with thinking at the top levels of the Liberal Party said Taylor’s team had decided to be firmer in countering One Nation, deploying MPs such as Andrew Hastie and possibly Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. Hastie said on Monday that Hanson was “MAGA First”, but the Coalition’s reluctance to take her on for most of the year may have entrenched her position as the dominant force on the right.
Lincoln Folo, a former National Party director, was appointed to lead the Liberal Party’s campaign machine last week after Abbott and other party figures judged that Folo presented the clearest vision of how to fight on two fronts against Labor and One Nation.
Sources said Folo has raised three ideas with colleagues recently: pushing MPs to become more active in their communities to counter mistrust in the party brand; more forcefully presenting a positive economic vision; and getting the message to conservative voters that Hanson’s rise will decrease the chances of removing Labor because the right-wing vote will be split.
“You don’t buy a plane to fly to Yeppoon to beat Labor. Flying to Yeppoon doesn’t change a government,” Folo has told associates, referring to the regional town where Hanson is hoping to set up her new office. Yeppoon is in the lower house seat of Capricornia, held by the Nationals.
One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce said on Seven’s Sunrise the “polling is a reflection of the sentiment of the people”.
Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson said: “They might be polar opposites on presentation and ideology, but the challenge of defeating One Nation is the same as defeating a teal, or an actual independent. ‘Outsiders’ all have a similar core equity that major political parties lack: trust. Labor has shredded any remaining trust, Liberals are on the journey to rebuild theirs.”
“There is absolutely a way forward for the Liberal Party to reclaim government. It starts by listening and understanding where voters are and understanding their anxiety. Then it involves understanding that ideas do not vote, people vote. You must understand who you are for. Not what you are for, who you are for.
“Finally, you cannot play small target – you need an animating vision about where you want to take the country, and tell a compelling story.”
Nationals leader Matt Canavan said, “We’ve just got to keep fighting”.
“People are very angry with the state of the country, the lying from this government, and they rightly need a vehicle. We need to channel it into a productive form of anger that is going to build something better.
“I’m not going to die wondering.”
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Paul Sakkal is Chief Political Correspondent. He previously covered Victorian politics and won a Walkley award and the 2025 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year. Contact him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14.Connect via X or email.