One Nation could win as many as 55 seats with the Coalition reduced to a crossbench rump of as few as nine MPs — and the Nationals may be wiped out completely — if an election were held today, according to a devastating new poll.
The latest DemosAU/Capital Brief survey of more than 8400 voters, conducted between January and March, puts One Nation’s primary vote share at 27 per cent — a 10-point increase from October-November and more than 20 points since the May 2025 election — behind Labor on 29 per cent with the Coalition on 21 per cent and The Greens on 12 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote has dipped four percentage points from 33 per cent since late last year, with the Coalition shedding three points and The Greens one point.
DemosAU’s analysis projects results for all 150 federal seats using a multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) model.
Labor retains a strong lead and would be returned with a reduced majority of 77-86 seats while One Nation would win 46-55 seats to become the main opposition party, the analysis found.
The Liberals would win 9-15 seats, the Nationals 0-2, The Greens 0-3 and independents 2-6, according to DemosAU, which cautions the federal election is still two years way and it remains to be seen whether One Nation can retain its momentum.
It’s the latest poll to confirm a stunning rise in support for the right-wing party at the expense of the humiliated Coalition, and comes a day before the crucial South Australian election where the Liberals are facing the prospect of a total state wipe-out.
“I’ve been on the ground in South Australia all week ahead of the state election tomorrow and I know what kind of support One Nation is receiving here,” Pauline Hanson told news.com.au.
“Ultimately elections are the only polls which really matter.”
DemosAU’s October-November MRP showed One Nation winning 12 federal seats, already a major jump for Ms Hanson’s party.
“This is the most comprehensive poll conducted since the 2025 election and shows the Coalition would be relegated to the crossbench if an election were held today,” DemosAU director of research George Hasanakos said in a statement.
“Based on this model, One Nation would become the major opposition party, capturing all of the National Party’s electorates and most of those held by the Liberals.
“We also see One Nation making inroads in the Labor vote in the urban fringes of several capital cities including Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne — places which have many new residents priced out of housing elsewhere.
“Labor is dominant in the inner to middle rings of capital cities but would have a fight on their hands in those urban fringes and in regional seats on these numbers.
“The surge in support has certainly sent a message to the major parties and we can expect the Coalition especially to focus its efforts on winning back the voters it has lost to One Nation.
“That process has already started with the leadership of the coalition parties switching to Angus Taylor for the Liberals and Matt Canavan for the Nationals, both of whom could be seen as more appealing to the cohort of voters lost to One Nation than their predecessors.”
It comes after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese earlier this week accused One Nation of wanting to take Australia “back to the 1950s”.
“There will be some politicians, some of which have risen up recently in the polling, who essentially are appealing to, ‘Vote for us and the world will stop,’” Mr Albanese said in a speech to the Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA) on Wednesday.
“Or worse still, we’ll go back to the Australia of the 1950s or 60s, with the same population that look like that.
“That’s not going to happen, and it’s a fool’s errand. What we need to do is to make sure we acknowledge that this is a rapid period of change, that won’t continue, but we need to make sure governments work with industry and civil society to shape that change in Australia’s national interest.
“If we do that, we the greatest country on earth can be even more successful into the future. I’m certainly of that view.”
One Nation’s rise has largely been fuelled by concerns over immigration, with fresh data on Thursday showing net overseas migration for the September quarter of 2025 reaching 87,821.
The figures suggest the government is on track to blow well past Treasury’s forecast of 260,000 in 2025-26.
DemosAU’s MRP projects, based on a two-candidate preferred vote, the ‘notional’ leader in each seat and categorises those seats as either ‘firm’ (strongly favoured to win), ‘lean’ (moderate chance of winning) or ‘in doubt’ (too close to call).
Mr Hasanakos said One Nation is leading or threatening to win most Coalition seats, and around 10 Labor seats.
According to the model, Labor leads in 83 seats (56 firm, 20 lean and seven in doubt), One Nation leads in 52 seats (23 firm, 25 lean and four in doubt), the Coalition in nine seats (five firm, one lean and three in doubt), The Greens in one seat (one in doubt), and others in five seats (one firm, one lean and three in doubt).
Seats where One Nation is firmly in front include Fairfax (QLD), Fadden (QLD), Canning (WA), Forrest (WA), Wright (QLD), Lyne (NSW), Monash (VIC), Capricornia (QLD), Dawson (QLD), Hinkler (QLD), Wide Bay (QLD), Grey (SA), Nicholls (VIC), Flynn (QLD), Parkes (NSW), Wannon (VIC), Cowper (NSW), Gippsland (VIC), Maranoa (QLD), Calare (NSW), Indi (VIC), Mallee (VIC) and Groom (QLD).
Seats which are leaning to One Nation include Gilmore (NSW), La Trobe (VIC), Bowman (QLD), Forde (QLD), Leichhardt (QLD), Bullwinkel (WA), Braddon (TAS), Longman (QLD), McPherson (QLD), Solomon (NT), Hunter (NSW), Bendigo (VIC), Casey (VIC), Fisher (QLD), Moncrieff (QLD), Flinders (VIC), Page (NSW), Hume (NSW), Durack (WA), O’Connor (WA), Barker (SA), Farrer (NSW), Riverina (NSW), Mayo (SA) and Kennedy (QLD).
Marginal seats which were too close to call but where One Nation leads include Hawke (VIC), Blair (QLD), Lindsay (NSW) and New England (NSW).
Marginal seats where One Nation is behind but could win include Herbert (QLD), Petrie (QLD), Bass (TAS), Lingiari (NT), Paterson (NSW) and Eden-Monaro (NSW).
The model also shows One Nation winning the NSW seat of Farrer, but DemosAU cautions however this should not be taken as a prediction of the upcoming by-election result sparked by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, because by-election dynamics are vastly different to those of a general election.
DemosAU polled 8484 respondents between January 13 and March 3.
The MRP model generated primary vote share estimated federal voting intention using age, gender, education, income, state, region and 2025 federal election vote.
Two-candidate preferred results were estimated based on relevant preference flows at the last election, except for One Nation where preference flows were modelled on large-scale respondent-allocated preference data.
