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Opinion
Is Nationals leader David Littleproud one of the worst the party has had in recent history?
He faces a probable spill motion next week but will almost certainly survive maverick Queensland MP Colin Boyce’s challenge. The more realistic candidates to replace Littleproud include Matt Canavan, Michael McCormack, Darren Chester and Bridget McKenzie, but none of them have signalled plans to blast out the member for Maranoa.
At the same time, Liberals have this week been tying themselves up in knots over whether and when to challenge Sussan Ley, and who should lead the charge for the conservative faction – either Andrew Hastie or Angus Taylor.
One Hastie backer claimed to this masthead on Thursday that he had the vote of 20 members in the party room, with 17 strongly committed, whereas Taylor could count on six votes, with three firmly committed. These numbers are fluid, and Taylor supporters claim differently, given the pair are mostly drawing from the same well of support. Taylor’s backers also emphasise he has broader support across the party room, especially among moderates, if the pair were to face each other in a ballot.
But as the latest challenge hangs over Littleproud’s head, and with disaffected Liberals looking less likely (at the time of writing) to challenge Ley next week, consider some of the key moments of Littleproud’s time in power.
Over almost five years of this Labor government, the Nationals under Littleproud led the way in opposing the Indigenous Voice to parliament, forced the Liberals to water down their net zero commitment and pursue a nuclear power policy of dubious design, extolled the virtues of coal and generally dragged the Coalition in a more conservative direction.
At each step and with each policy decision, the Nationals have (mostly) had allies in the conservative wing of the Liberals onside and opponents in the form of Liberal moderates (nuclear power being an exception). The Nationals have (mostly) got their way. This would suggest that Littleproud is an effective leader of the Nationals and one able to secure outcomes for his party.
But what has occurred concurrently? As the Coalition has adopted more conservative positions, the Liberals have lost swathes of inner-city seats to the teals, Labor and even the Greens. Meanwhile, One Nation’s vote has grown and grown. This is not all the fault of Littleproud, but many Liberals, fairly or not, blame the Nationals, at least in part, for costing them votes and seats.
As one former Nationals staffer described it: “Now we have the Liberals chasing the Nats to the right while the Nats chase Pauline [Hanson] into fantasy Trumpland”.
Littleproud noted on Wednesday that the Nationals held all their House of Representatives seats at the last election.
This assertion infuriates members of his own party room as it conveniently omits three MPs (Andrew Gee, Barnaby Joyce, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price) who defected from the party in his time as leader, while there is another defection in the offing (Boyce) and Perin Davey lost her seat in the Senate at the last election.
Some MPs also blame Littleproud for the decision of former MP Keith Pitt to resign and take up the post of ambassador to the Holy See. The pair were not close, but at least the Nationals held Pitt’s former seat of Hinkler.
But it’s almost impossible to imagine any of Littleproud’s predecessors – from Doug Anthony to Warren Truss to Barnaby Joyce – splitting the Coalition twice in less than a year.
Two decades ago, previous generations of Nationals would grin smugly whenever leadership speculation or a challenge washed over the Liberals or Labor; the Nats are different, they’d say, we don’t do things like that. Those days are long gone.
There will be other consequences for the Nationals, too, if the split continues: senators Bridget McKenzie and Ross Cadell could struggle to hold their seats in Victoria and NSW, respectively, if the two parties do not re-form the Coalition and run on a joint ticket, while Joyce’s close friend Gina Rinehart – a big Nationals donor – has begun steering donors towards One Nation.
There is no sign that Boyce is playing the role of stalking horse as Liberal Kevin Andrews did in 2009, when he launched an organised first challenge against Malcolm Turnbull and weakened the then-opposition leader to clear the way for Tony Abbott to stand and win.
Boyce’s reasons for challenging are more existential; he warned on Thursday that his party was headed towards “oblivion” if the Coalition was not re-formed.
“I came out yesterday and made this announcement and the reasons for that were simple. To allow my colleagues four or five days to contemplate the future and understand the importance of this decision in respect to breaking the Coalition and running alone.”
Boyce’s actions are more like the “empty chair” spill of February 2015, when frustrated Liberal MPs Don Randall and Luke Simpkins forced a spill before any of the possible candidates (Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Scott Morrison) were ready.
Abbott, then struggling as prime minister, instead faced an empty chair and won 61-39. But the margin was a surprise and presaged Abbott’s downfall months later.
Deputy Nationals leader Kevin Hogan predicted on Thursday that his leader would win the ballot comfortably and that aside from his own vote, Boyce might “get one or two others”.
But if that one or two becomes three or four in a party room that has shrunk to just 18 members, the Nationals leader will be looking over his shoulder (if he isn’t already).
Littleproud’s declaration last week that a reunion of the Coalition under Ley was “untenable at the moment” and “very unlikely” bit hard within the ranks of Liberal MPs.
Though Littleproud’s office subsequently attempted to argue to the contrary, Liberal MPs understood those words plainly to mean the junior Coalition party was ordering the senior Coalition party to change its leader – a demand as welcome as chickenpox on the first day of school holidays.
Littleproud might not be the worst Nationals leader ever, and he may well see off Boyce and other future challengers. But he has infuriated enough Liberals that Coalition reconciliation becomes almost impossible while he is still leader.
And the more Littleproud and the Nationals fight each other and the Liberals – giving the Albanese government a free pass – the greater the chance Littleproud becomes just the third Nationals leader, after Ian Sinclair and the short-lived Charles Blunt, not to lead the party in government and serve as deputy prime minister.
That’s not a testimonial he would wish to claim.
James Massola is chief political commentator for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
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James Massola is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X or email.From our partners
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