The brutal and secretive nine-month iron ore pricing stand-off between China’s iron ore buyers and our largest miner BHP has been settled. While the battle played out behind closed doors, the stakes were huge – for the company, the industry and the Australian economy as a whole.
It was corporate Australia’s biggest revenue threat and arguably the mining industry’s biggest secret.
The good news is that BHP appears to be the winner – or at least it’s not the loser.
Despite BHP’s reluctance to publicly acknowledge the elephant in the room, analysts and traders had openly speculated about the guerilla banning tactics being employed by its Chinese customers.
The conclusion of negotiations sparked a 1 per cent gain in BHP’s share price in the ASX’s sea of red on Wednesday as market fears were at least partially allayed when the miner confirmed its production guidance.
China’s attempt to test its leverage on pricing began nine months ago, with a ban of BHP’s key iron ore products. Reports of the escalating battle soon prompted Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to apply pressure to settle the dispute.
At stake was Australia’s biggest export to China – the red rivers of iron ore.
WA Premier Roger Cook said late last year he had discussed the topic with Tim Day, BHP’s head of iron ore, who told Cook that “the negotiations are tough” and were “subject to a certain amount of strategic gamesmanship”.
BHP’s quarterly production update on Wednesday, in which it said the price of iron ore it received during the period to March was slightly higher than last year, suggests the dispute had so far caused minimal damage.
That said, there was clear evidence of China’s unofficial bans on certain of BHP’s iron ore types such as those from the Jimblebar mine, whose production has fallen precipitously in the March quarter.
BHP noted in the bowels of its report that the negotiations with China have concluded, but provided no further detail. The company is not divulging the terms of the settlement nor for how long its new contract will be in effect, leaving risks that issues could flare up again over the next couple of years.
At stake in the tussle was Australia’s biggest export to China – the red rivers of iron ore, which are totalling around $93 billion a year.
It was a battle of muscle and wills between Asia’s biggest economy – and our mining industry’s biggest customer – and the world’s largest miner over prices and terms.
BHP’s iron ore exports from Australia to China alone are estimated at $US23 billion ($32 billion) a year, and there was expectation that the outcome of the tug-of-war would eventually flow on to other local producers such as Rio Tinto and Fortescue, who are said to have negotiated their own deals but on undisclosed terms.
The knock-on effect for the Australian economy and government revenues if the Chinese took more control over iron ore prices was a significant but unspoken threat.
The powerful Asian nation sought to use the contract negotiations between BHP and China Mineral Resources Group, its state-run body representing its largest steel mills, to extract a better deal.
China’s flex was presumably about more than just iron ore prices, with reports suggesting Beijing also wanted to use the stand-off to force its main global suppliers to accept yuan instead of US dollars for payment in a bid designed to undermine the US dollar’s dominance.
Yet as China’s biggest supplier of iron ore, Australia’s mining giants including BHP have been in a strong negotiating position, which has been increasingly vexing for China.
China has long wanted to exert more control over the price it pays for iron ore as its steelmakers are under margin pressure and many of its iron ore suppliers are moving towards delivering lower grade product.
It’s no accident that the move by China to engage in this pricing arm-wrestle comes as African supplies of the 75-per-cent Chinese-owned Simandou iron ore project in Guinea are starting to come online and offer some, albeit limited alternatives, to Australia’s ore.
BHP appears to have survived this battle. But the war has a long way to play out.
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