Political parties that lose government would do well to consider what needs to be done to recoup lost trust and support. A spot of self-reflection could help too.
But the National Party has proved incapable of this kind of introspection and blithely ploughed on with business as usual. Meanwhile, One Nation has been mustering National voters who have lost the faith as internal disputes and policy differences racked the party.
The populist right-winger Matt Canavan was elected as Nationals leader on Wednesday in an attempt to put all that behind.
It is a big gamble.
Conservative politics in Australia is faced with the twin dilemmas of trying to recapture the urban heartland while keeping the barbarians from the gate in the bush.
Leaning further to the right may be more of a detonation than a reset that may distract Coalition faithful attracted to Pauline Hanson’s siren song, but also risks further alienating other voters, especially women, who fled the Liberals for the teals.
The Nationals managed to hold their ground in 2025 even while the Liberals were routed. Victory in the bush seemed to promote a “tail wags the dog” syndrome, and National MPs wilfully ignored the realpolitik that the Coalition was the only viable path back to government for conservatives with the Albanese government rampant.
For 10 months, as their parties fiddled around about what had gone wrong in last May’s election, the toxic relationship between former Liberal leader Sussan Ley and former Nationals leader David Littleproud served to further erode voters’ faith in their respective parties and the Coalition.
In the end, Littleproud proved an underwhelming Nationals leader. As the Coalition struggled to come to grips with defeat, he lost the votes of Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Barnaby Joyce, blathered on about unpopular nuclear power, and pushed regional-only policies that further annoyed the Liberals and urban voters.
The Coalition had only split twice since 1949 but Littleproud managed two splits under his short watch. He topped it off by announcing the second rupture on the same day as January’s National Day of Mourning for the 15 people killed in Bondi Beach, a singular moment of political insensitivity and stupidity.
His replacement also has a talent for going against his own side.
Canavan spent years rebelling against the net zero emissions target and arguing for the use of fossil fuels. He learnt contrarian politics while working for Barnaby Joyce. Hopefully, his election as leader provides a much-needed opportunity to self-correct to a wider agenda.
That said, Canavan’s first challenge will be the upcoming Farrer byelection caused by Ley’s resignation from parliament last month.
It was once a Nationals feudal estate, and Ley won Farrer for the Liberals after the respected Nationals leader Tim Fischer retired. Given its history, incredibly, the seat looms as a litmus test for the damage One Nation is wreaking on the Coalition.
Coalition MPs have indulged in an unedifying and self-destructive display of politicians behaving badly and lost two elections. Canavan can stop the rot by showing principled leadership in the face of a rampant One Nation.
Jordan Baker sends a newsletter to subscribers each week. Sign up to receive her Note from the Editor.
