Hypersonic missiles are flying.
Gunboat diplomacy is firing.
Wolf warriors are howling.
Things are getting terse between China and Japan.
And the downward spiral is accelerating.
Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has threatened Tokyo to “step back from the brink” and instructed it to “return from the wrong path”.
But Japan has its own views on Chinese brinkmanship and paths to war.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned her nation in November last year that an anticipated Chinese invasion of neighbouring Taiwan could “constitute a survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
It was a move that angered Beijing.
So much so that the Chinese Consul General of Osaka Xue Jian said he would chop off her head: “That filthy neck that barged in on its own — I’ve got no choice [but] to cut it off without a moment’s hesitation. Are you prepared for that?”
It was a reaction that appeared to confirm Tokyo’s fears.
Beijing has since followed up with sanctions on Japanese tourism, trade, manufacturing and political figures. And the tension only continues to ramp up.
In March, a knife-wielding junior officer of Japan’s military broke into the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo. Beijing labelled the incident an example of Japan’s “resurgent militaristic thinking”.
Now, Tokyo has sent a destroyer through the Taiwan Strait on its way to join Australian, United States and Philippines forces currently practising the defence of the South China Sea.
That has triggered another barrage of political bluster and military posturing from Beijing.
It has sent its own task force of modern warships and combat aircraft for drills around the island of Luzon – the same waters that allied forces are exercising in. One live-fire event featured the YJ-20 hypersonic “Carrier Killer” anti-ship ballistic missile.
But it has also sent warships and aircraft towards Japan.
“Beijing does not intend to let Japan off lightly,” warns Chinese Communist Party theologian Deng Yuwen.
“It is using the incident to push the crisis one step further. If this continues, then the possibility of a limited air or naval clash within the next year or two, or even a small-scale exchange of fire, cannot be dismissed as alarmism.”
Lines in the sand
“We wish to remind the countries concerned that blindly binding themselves together in the name of security will only be akin to playing with fire – ultimately backfiring upon themselves,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun warned participants of the Philippines Balikatan manoeuvres last week.
Some 17,000 soldiers, sailors and aircrew are participating in the 19-day “Shoulder to Shoulder” exercise.
Australia, New Zealand, France, Canada, the United States – and Japan – are represented.
The Chinese Communist Party finds such cooperative defence demonstrations disturbing.
So it sent the aircraft carrier PLAN Liaoning and a Type 075 helicopter assault ship to the South China Sea. And a surface action group, centred on two destroyers and a frigate, is shadowing allied forces to the northeast of the Philippines.
Japan is also being targeted.
Beijing has launched extra “combat readiness patrols” over the East China Sea. Warships have been deployed to international waters near Okinawa.
Beijing lays the blame on the Taiwan Strait transit by the JDF destroyer, Ikazuchi.
“Why did Beijing react so strongly to the Ikazuchi incident? One reason is the timing,” says the CCP’s Deng.
It took place on April 17. That’s the anniversary of the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, when China’s Qing Empire surrendered to Imperial Japan after the First Sino-Japanese War.
“[That is] a date China regards as a symbol of national humiliation,” Deng states.
“In Beijing’s eyes, this was not an isolated act but a direct provocation directed at China’s security concerns and diplomatic dignity.”
Japan and China enjoyed strong economic ties in recent decades. But that has begun to fall apart.
China (and Taiwan) claim the southernmost Senkaku Islands in the Japanese archipelago.
Beijing has even revived talk that even the large island of Okinawa rightfully belongs to it.
And simmering disagreements over the Yasukuni war shrine continue to provide a pretext for a profound cultural and political conflict.
It’s a recipe for disaster.
“A growing number of uncertainties could drive the crisis out of control,” Deng warns.
“A dangerous close encounter, a miscalculation, a fire-control radar lock, or an over-reaction by a lower-level commander could all push both sides across the threshold of a conflict they want to avoid.”
‘Forever renounce war’
“Various signs indicate that Japan’s right-wing forces are deliberately attempting to challenge the post-war international order from multiple aspects, including military, public opinion and law,” Senior Colonel Jiang Bin, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defence, said at a recent press briefing.
Japan’s imperialistic past won’t stop haunting it.
China, in particular, has reason not to forget.
For Beijing, World War II began in 1931 when Japan invaded Manchuria and ended with the surrender to allied forces on September 2, 1945.
It was a brutal struggle. And Japan was found guilty of many atrocities, among the most notable being the 1937 “Rape of Nanjing” when somewhere between 142,000 and 300,000 civilians were slaughtered.
Japan emerged from the war as a new democracy with a uniquely pacifist constitution.
Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution – enacted in 1947 – states “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right”, as well as “the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes”.
But that provision is increasingly under debate.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently threw fuel on the fire, stating “the time has come” for constitutional reform.
The reason? Beijing’s aggressive rearmament and expansionist acts towards the Himalayas, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea – including Japanese islands there.
For its part, Beijing insists Tokyo’s “remilitarisation” is illegal under its constitution and international law. It insists post-World War II resolutions demand Japan to “completely disarm” and prohibit “such industries as would enable the country to rearm for war”.
That’s an uncharacteristic appeal to the “Post-World War II International Order”.
“Xi Jinping’s recognition of its usefulness is clear in the narrative shift regarding China’s wartime role from victim to victor,” argues Association for International Affairs (AMO) China analyst Sense Hofstede.
It’s not an argument that rests well, though. Beijing insists that the same international order does not apply wherever it asserts sovereignty.
“Western analysts and the US government have frequently called out Chinese lawfare campaigns that ‘distort’ and ‘mischaracterise’ international law as it pertains to Taiwan,” Hofstede adds.
“Awareness of similar designs targeting Japan is lacking.”
Ancient enmity
“For nearly 1000 years, the eastern dwarves have brought calamity; the sea of blood and deep hatred are still before our very eyes,” a recent People’s Liberation Army social media post states.
It was referring to the anniversary of the Rape of Nanjing.
“The commemorative event was relatively low-key, and Xi did not attend, but the Chinese military’s Eastern Command nonetheless posted a picture on social media showing a large bloody sword chopping off the head of a skeleton wearing a Japanese army cap,” notes Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) Professor Derek Grossman.
But Beijing’s World War II outrage is being selectively applied.
“Even with the brutal legacy of wartime atrocities vividly etched into public memory, these grievances were intentionally sidelined to facilitate the 1972 normalisation of ties [with Japan],” argues Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University international relations analyst Lee Chan Hu.
“Famously, Mao Zedong even deflected an apology from then-Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei, suggesting that the Japanese invasion inadvertently helped unify China under the Communist Party.”
China collapsed into civil war with the retreat of Japanese forces.
The revolutionary Chinese Communist Party’s Red Army forced the government of the Republic of China to retreat to Taiwan.
Now, Tokyo has thrown its hat in with Taipei.
Beijing has retaliated with economic coercion moves.
It is halting the export of any product or material it deems to be “dual use”, or capable of use for both civilian and military purposes.
The given reason: “That the Japanese leader recently made erroneous remarks about Taiwan”.
But Professor Grossman believes Beijing’s new belligerence isn’t only aimed at Tokyo.
“China appears determined to use Takaichi’s comments not only as a way to test Japan’s resolve, but also that of Washington’s under President Donald Trump,” Professor Grossman writes.
The US President recently warned Japan’s Prime Minister to dial back her tone ahead of upcoming US-China trade talks.
“But Trump’s admonition to Takaichi may have only emboldened Beijing,” Grossman adds, “suggesting its years of efforts to drive a wedge between the US-Japan security alliance are finally bearing fruit.”
Conflicting narratives
“Japan’s new militarism is no longer just a dangerous prospect, but a real threat,” the People’s Daily proclaimed on March 17.
“This transformation is not only reflected in strengthening defence forces, but also penetrates into various economic and social fields such as industry, science and technology, and infrastructure construction, with the intention of giving the entire country a full military colour.”
It’s an accusation that mirrors Beijing’s own fast-paced military build-up.
But the torrent of legal, diplomatic and political accusations follows a familiar playbook.
It’s been used to batter Taiwan’s international standing for decades. And to distract from its own actions.
Such wedge politics have worked well for Beijing.
But the fulcrum of force can apply both ways.
“Beijing would be unwise to dismiss Takaichi’s conciliatory turn,” Professor Grossman warns.
“If it continues to use coercion and intimidation, it will only accelerate the very outcome it seeks to avoid: a more resolute Japan, a tighter US–Japan alliance, and broader international sympathy for Tokyo’s position.”
Meanwhile, Japan continues to enhance its defence force and strengthen international ties with “like-minded” nations, including Australia, India, and the Pacific nations.
That has Beijing baffled.
“Japanese militarism has committed brutal crimes against the peoples of China and Asia, and has also brought profound disasters to the Japanese people,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo said last week.
“Some forces have also attempted to glorify and whitewash the crimes of aggression, pushing Japan to accelerate ‘remilitarisation’, leading to ‘a new type of militarism’ becoming a threat and threatening regional peace and stability. The international community should be highly vigilant in this regard.”
The CCP’s Deng warns Beijing is willing to follow this argument through to a confrontational conclusion.
“Neither side wants a war, but both are moving closer to conflict,” Deng concludes.
“If Takaichi remains in power in the years ahead and continues her nationalist, openly hostile-to-China line, the strategic confrontation between China and Japan will only deepen.
“If that trajectory holds, a serious clash — whether in the East China Sea, the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, or even around Okinawa itself — is increasingly difficult to rule out.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer
