“The sneaker business is larger than ever,” Goldstein said. “I wouldn’t even call casualisation a trend – it’s just a key consumer preference.”
Yet the sneaker makers have run into headwinds since the pandemic as they sometimes failed to keep up with shoppers’ fickle tastes, saw sales cool, particularly in China, and faced the threat of US tariffs. Shares of Adidas are down by almost a third in the past year, and even On Holding’s stock is down by more than 10 per cent in the period, despite strong revenue growth.
“We don’t believe the casualisation trend is over – rather, it has stabilised, with wardrobes now more balanced,” said Poonam Goyal, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “The category has moved beyond the pandemic-driven demand spike and is now operating in a more normal-sized environment.”
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There are signs that sneakers are bleeding into the dress shoe category. In 2025, the top-traded loafer on Stockx, an online resale platform, was the New Balance 1906L, which looks like the offspring of a preppy boat shoe and a marathon trainer. It’s also common these days to see movie stars and fashion influencers donning spiffed-up, expensive versions of trainers, often in collaboration with luxury brands such as Gucci and Moncler.
The analysts at Bank of America didn’t suggest that people are going to ditch their sneakers for patent leather oxfords anytime soon. Rather, they indicated that sporting goods – after booming during the pandemic – have since mid-2023 been growing at a slower-than-average pace compared with the past couple of decades.
While that typically could mean the industry is poised to take off again, no big rebound is apparent, the analysts argued. They cited data ranging from recent credit card purchases to sluggish sales figures from Asian footwear and apparel suppliers to less-than-bullish commentary from industry leaders regarding the outlook for 2026.
If the sporting goods industry grew by an average of about 9 per cent a year since 2007, as millions of people traded in dress shoes for sneakers, the future annual expansion may be only about 4 or 5 per cent, they suggested.
Their optimistic take is that the industry is in a prolonged slump because of consumers fearing economic conditions and recent stumbles at Nike. That could mean that the sneaker boom still has legs and will resurge as early as 2027.
“The alternative is much worse and more likely, in our view,” the Bank of America analysts added. “The emergence of a new, less favourable long-term industry paradigm.”
