Washington: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief senior members of Congress about the situation in Iran hours before Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union address, sparking fresh speculation about an imminent US strike on the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on Trump to prioritise diplomacy, pledging Iran would resume negotiations with the US in Geneva and that a deal was “within reach”.
Rubio was due to brief the so-called “Gang of Eight”, which includes Democratic and Republican leaders from both congressional chambers, on Tuesday afternoon (Washington time) before Trump delivers the president’s annual speech to Congress at 9pm (1pm Wednesday AEDT). The briefing is about Iran, a source told Reuters.
The development has intensified speculation about Trump’s plans for military action against Iran, and comes amid reports that the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Dan “Razin” Caine, privately warned that a campaign against Iran would be difficult and carry significant risks to American lives.
Trump rejected that portrayal, saying on social media that Caine “like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won”.
All reporting on a potential war with Iran had been written “incorrectly”, Trump said. “I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also disparaged “sensationalist reporting” over the past 24 hours, and said only Trump knew what he would do regarding Iran.
“President Trump’s first option is always diplomacy. But as he has shown, he is willing to use the lethal force of the US military if necessary,” she said.
Araghchi said Tehran wanted a fair deal as fast as possible, but its fundamental convictions were unchanged: it would not develop a nuclear weapon, but it would not forgo its right to “peaceful nuclear technology”. That is a key sticking point, with the US demanding Iran halt all uranium enrichment.
“We have a historic opportunity to strike an unprecedented agreement that addresses mutual concerns and achieves mutual interests. A deal is within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority,” Araghchi said on X.
It would be unprecedented for a US president to announce military action in the State of the Union, which typically highlights the administration’s achievements and policy agenda, with a focus on domestic affairs.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator who has advised numerous presidents, said that alone “is reason enough for Trump to do it”.
Last week Miller told this masthead Trump had “put himself in a box” given his promises to help the Iranian people and his “staggering” military build-up in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Republican senator Ted Cruz of Texas said he had personally told the president the Iranian regime had never been weaker and urged that he should “not miss this opportunity” to arm the protesters and remove the Ayatollah.
“I think there’s a very real possibility we will see, potentially in a matter of days, limited strikes,” Cruz told CNBC television on Tuesday. “What we’re not going to see is boots on the ground … but I think there’s a real possibility of targeted strikes that are designed to support the Iranian people who are protesting.”
Former CIA director and retired army general David Petraeus said it was unusual for highly sensitive national security discussions, such as those involving Caine, to be leaked to the press – including in the second Trump administration, which was more disciplined in the first.
Petraeus told a live event hosted by Foreign Policy magazine that Caine was evidently concerned about the “missile math” – how many missiles and launchers Iran had left, and how many interceptors the US had left.
There were several options on the table, he said, including a “demonstration strike” to show the cost of not making a deal, a “decapitation strike” to kill the Ayatollah or other members of Iran’s leadership, or a sustained air campaign.
“You can do a lot of damage. What I’m not sure you can do is bring about regime change,” Petraeus said, noting there was no obvious opposition figure in Iran poised to take power.
“If we do go big, we very much need to after the capabilities they have to retaliate because that has the most catastrophic potential,” he said.
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Michael Koziol is the North America correspondent for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald. He is a former Sydney editor, Sun-Herald deputy editor and a federal political reporter in Canberra.Connect via X or email.