Since their drought-breaking premiership in 2007, the Cats have missed the finals just twice. Coach Chris Scott has presided over just four dead rubbers in his 15 years at the helm. The last time Geelong missed finals in back-to-back seasons, the man now coaching them was a hard-nosed defender for Brisbane.
Each time the cliff supposedly loomed, it turned out to be a mere pothole. This year is proof last year’s return to September was not dead-cat bounce.
In 2022, only Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan remained from their premierships of 2007, 2009 and 2011. This year’s team of 23 is markedly different to three years ago. Just 12 are suiting up for a crack at a second flag in four seasons.
When the cliff came for the Lions, the mighty fell hard. After falling just short of a four-peat in 2004, they played finals just once from 2005-18, a period in which they parted ways with three coaches – Leigh Matthews, Michael Voss and Justin Leppitsch. In eight of those 14 seasons, they finished in the bottom four.
All but one their 12 finals appearances this century have come either side of their Dark Age. This is their third grand final in a row. The last time they failed to reach the final four was in 2019 when a pandemic was more science fiction than reality.
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Their tally of 299 wins places them a modest seventh, but only Geelong and Sydney can match their seven grand finals.
Collingwood, too, would have been playing a decider in a seventh year had they won last week. The Magpies are in the curious position of being unlucky not to have won three flags this century and lucky to have won one at all.
For Rodney Eade, who coached 12 seasons this century for Sydney, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast, the Cats will still be the benchmark team of this century regardless of the result on Saturday.
“For me, it’s bigger than that,” Eade, also a four-time premiership player with Hawthorn, said. “For number of games won, finals series, top-four finishes, they’re ahead of everyone else. Since 2007, they’ve been fantastic.
“Brisbane were in the doldrums there for a while, bottomed out. Geelong are the winners for sustained excellence over that period of time. Even if they don’t win they’re still the club of the first 25 years of the millennium.”
For the more hard-hearted judges, like Essendon premiership hero Matthew Lloyd, who see success in football through the prism of a premiership medal, only winning matters. It’s not the club that has won the most games in the season that lifts the cup, but the club that wins on the final day of the season.
Just this week, former Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley, who lost four preliminary finals as a coach and played in three losing grand finals as a player for Geelong, lamented on Nine’s Footy Classified how the ultimate success evaded him.
“I know there can only be one winner every year, but premierships are what you play football for and what you are judged on,” Lloyd said.
“I heard Ken Hinkley speaking the other night and he was getting down on himself because he didn’t take his team to a grand final and win one.
“He was wonderful for Port Adelaide, but you can see he was judging himself on premierships. That’s what it’s all about. They’re extremely hard to win, but it’s everything. I know I catch up with my premiership teammates because that’s what it’s about.
“Whoever [of these two teams] gets the fifth will certainly have bragging rights.”
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Geelong can slam the door shut with victory.
“Certainly,” Lloyd said. “But there’s no point being to all these prelims and grand finals if you can’t win them.”
Success should not be taken for granted. This time 100 years ago, the equal-most successful club of the 20th century was Fitzroy.
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