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The decision by the Liberal-National Coalition to formally split scales new heights of political stupidity and insensitivity.
History suggests this Coalition death wish risks consigning its MPs to years in the wilderness.
The Nationals’ rush to head off the relentless march of the Hansonites makes them look selfishly incompetent while collaterally damaging Liberal rehabilitation prospects.
The break occurred ostensibly because three Nationals senators broke shadow cabinet solidarity and voted against hate speech laws introduced to parliament this week by the Labor government in response to the Bondi Beach shootings.
But the Coalition has been riven by defections and behind-the-scenes manoeuvring, even as Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and National Party leader David Littleproud scored a rare win, barking for a month about the Labor government’s so-called insensitivity to Australia’s Jewish community and the need to act more decisively on antisemitism, only to allow a few Brown’s cow Nationals MPs to display open contempt for the sorely needed legislation.
What a bad look, but on top of their petty bickering, the leaders showed themselves heedless to the moment by foolishly indulging themselves in a public bloodletting and becoming the centre of attention on the very day Australians were supposed to be united in a National Day of Mourning to reflect on and honour the dead and wounded and other victims at Bondi Beach.
National Party dog-whistling on issues such as immigration and climate change only make it harder for the Liberals to quell the hard right-wingers within and convince the heartland that deserted last May to come home.
But then the federal Coalition has rarely been a happy arrangement. The Liberal and National parties represent voters from hugely disparate demographic and geographic bases who put aside differences in the pursuit of power.
That said, the Nationals have often been accused of being the tail that wags the dog.
This time, it’s the docked tip of the tail – Pauline Hanson – doing the wagging.
Hanson is helping herself to the Coalition support bases. One Nation’s primary vote has surged to 18 per cent in the latest Resolve Monitor poll, a record high, up four points in a month and almost three times its vote at the May election.
Back then, conservative voters by and large rejected the Coalition’s infatuation with Trump-style politics, but growing voter disenchantment with major parties will undoubtedly benefit Hanson and One Nation policies, and only a strong united Coalition can avoid mutual destruction.
The Coalition has been here before.
In May 1987, it ruptured after Queensland premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen rorted electoral boundaries and his National Party won government with just 37 per cent of the vote: his subsequent delusional Joh For Canberra campaign shattered the Coalition arrangement and helped Labor to a historic third election win and two subsequent victories.
Their previous experience is instructive for Ley and Littleproud. Labor’s record 94-seat majority indicates the Liberal/National split will ensure the conservatives remain in opposition until they get their act together and this feckless pair of leaders depart political life.
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