Fuel prices are pushing up planting costs.
Dwindling fertiliser supplies are shrinking crops.
Now, forecasters are warning we’re in for an extreme El Nino impact.
The heat is on.
It’s a case of everything, everywhere, all at once. With express delivery.
“It might be one of the most rapid transitions that I’ve seen in the record — maybe the most rapid,” says El Nino forecaster Nathaniel Johnson.
We know what trouble Mother Nature’s “little boy” (the translation of El Nino) can cause.
Extreme bushfires in Australia and Canada. Severe drought in Indonesia and Brazil. Devastating floods in China and Peru.
This year, he’s expected to be a very naughty boy.
And food supplies and prices could be in for a nasty shock.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) centre has released data indicating a 25 per cent chance El Nino will be “very strong” by November.
That’s because temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are on track to soar 2C above average.
A “normal” El Nino is triggered by just a 1C increase.
It’s the last thing Asia and Oceania need.
US President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz linking the region’s fuel, fertiliser, helium and aluminium supplies to the rest of the world.
Food growers in these regions are already among the most seriously hit.
Now they have extra threats to add to their equations.
Should they pay more to put less fertiliser on crops likely to be ruined by drought, fire or flood?
Will it be too hot (and expensive) for workers to sow, reap, process and distribute it all anyway?
A study published by the science journal Nature reports “clear evidence that sustained periods of non-survivable heat stress have already occurred during recent events across multiple regions.”
It’s a convergence of crises.
“A crisis like the current war is a stark reminder of our dependence on the integrated system we have created,” argues retired Centre for Strategic and International Studies emeritus analyst William Reinsch.
“It is a reminder that we are all connected by our common humanity, and that actions that cause the death of thousands, displacement of many more, famine, disease, and the destruction of property are abhorrent.”
Feedback loop
“There’s still uncertainty in terms of the amplitude, but there is a potential for a strong to very strong (El Nino) event,” NOAA’s Johnson told LiveScience.
“We see, potentially, negative impacts on crops where there’s drought, so places like from Indonesia to Australia to northern South America … Those are some of the big impacts on food.”
Then there are fires, floods and hotter temperatures.
“Just be prepared to devote the resources necessary to address those risks,” he adds.
But Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has been caught out by similar warnings before.
They didn’t happen. So it’s adopting a more cautious tone than NOAA.
“The impact of every El Nino is different. How strong an event is does not always match the strength of its impact on our weather and climate,” a recent BOM statement reads.
“Sometimes a weak El Nino can lead to significant impacts on Australia’s rainfall and temperature, while a stronger event may have fewer noticeable impacts.”
Put simply, shifting weather patterns still need to be identified and understood.
But cause still produces effect. Every action has a reaction.
“For countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to further fuel rationing, demand-side management and a reduction in economic activities,” Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis specialist Haneea Isaad told AFP.
Add hot weather, and you get even greater demand on already strained energy supplies to cool homes and workplaces, and hydro-electric generators begin to run dry.
Add flood, and you get even greater disruption to already-struggling industries and agriculture, and energy infrastructure is often damaged, from powerlines to solar farms.
Add fire. See above.
It all adds up to discomfort, shortages, financial stress, unemployment and political unrest.
Meanwhile, anticipated extreme outdoor conditions may exacerbate it all. And make it harder to “bounce back”.
“Deadly conditions have already placed hundreds of millions of people at grave risk, in both humid and dry climates, especially older people with no access to shade,” states the Nature study, led by Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University.
Sun, with an increasing chance of death
Increasingly hot weather is making even a little gardening dangerous, let alone full-on farming, a separate Environmental Research: Health report finds.
“We see substantial declines in the number of hours that older adults can safely do general tasks,” Arizona State University researcher Jennifer Vanos reports.
The study argues that sweltering conditions are preventing light physical activity among 18-40-year-olds for an average of about 50 hours per year.
That’s double the impact of 50 years ago.
Those aged 65 find themselves having to stay indoors and inactive for 900 hours a year.
The data, assembled from more than 200 countries for the period 1950 to 2024, shows some areas are heating up faster than others.
Southeastern Australia is among the worst. As is much of Europe.
“Extremely hot yet dry conditions are found to be just as deadly as hot and humid conditions,” the ANU study concludes.
The Arizona State study goes on to highlight the threat posed by extreme heat to areas of relatively rapid population growth: sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia.
The ANU study, however, took a different approach. It looked at six recent examples of extreme heatwaves in urban areas: Mount Isa in 2019, Bangkok in 2024, Karachi in 2015, Phoenix in 2023, Saudi Arabia in 2024 and Seville in 2003.
The Phoenix and Karachi events were found to have been lethal to those over 65 who were unable to find adequate shade. In Pakistan, it was capable of killing even 18 to 35-year-olds unable to escape the sun.
Which may be why the Karachi event produced some 2000 deaths.
What does this have to do with the war on Iran?
“There are two lessons here, both of them old,” concludes Reinsch.
“One is that everything is connected, sort of like the ‘butterfly effect’ that was in vogue in the 1960s.
“The other lesson is that we should have seen this coming. (In fact, a lot of people did see it coming, but they were ignored).
“Unexpected consequences occur frequently … Competent governments anticipate this and have backup plans.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer
