Let me say something that might sound uncomfortable.
What’s happening in the Middle East right now, the war in Iran and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, could end up being one of the best things to happen to Australian farming in decades.
Not because war is good. It isn’t.
But because it’s finally forcing us to confront a truth we’ve ignored for too long.
Our food system is far more fragile than we’d like to admit.
I’ve spent more than 40 years working in food, as a chef, a critic, a farmer, and someone who has gone from paddock to plate more times than I can count.
And right now, I can tell you this – Australian farmers are under real pressure.
Across the country, farmers are heading into the most important planting window of the year, May and June, and many are pulling back. Not because they don’t want to grow food, but because the numbers no longer stack up.
Fertiliser prices are volatile. Diesel is expensive. Supply is uncertain.
AusVeg reports 28 per cent of growers have already cut or stopped planting, with another 16 per cent reconsidering.
That has a very simple outcome.
Less food planted now means less food later. And that means higher prices.
So yes, bread will likely cost more. Beer too. Maybe a lot more.
But here’s the part we’re not talking about enough.
It doesn’t have to be this way.
The real issue isn’t just the Iran war. It’s that we’ve built a system that depends on things we don’t control.
Imported synthetic fertilisers. Diesel powered machinery. Long, fragile supply chains.
When everything is running smoothly, it works.
When something breaks, everything feels it.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
Meanwhile, other countries have been quietly building something very different.
Take China.
In 2024 alone, China sold more than 12 million electric vehicles, with EVs now making up around half of all new car sales, up from just 6 per cent in 2020.
China now produces over 70 per cent of the world’s electric vehicles and accounts for roughly two-thirds of global EV sales.
And it’s not just cars.
China dominates electric trucks, accounting for around 70 per cent of global sales, and has electrified almost its entire bus fleet, with more than 500,000 electric buses on the road.
Why does that matter?
Because when your transport, logistics and machinery run on electricity, not diesel, you are far less exposed to global oil shocks.
That advantage flows straight into farming.
Electric trucks move food.
Electric systems power irrigation.
Renewable energy reduces operating costs.
So when global fuel prices spike, Chinese farmers don’t get hit the same way Australian farmers do.
We, on the other hand, are still heavily reliant on diesel for everything – planting, harvesting, transporting food across vast distances.
That leaves us exposed. Every time.
And this isn’t the first warning.
We saw it during Covid.
We saw it again with the Ukraine war.
Fertiliser prices surged by more than 200 per cent in a matter of months.
And yet here we are again.
At some point, you have to ask, how many times do we need to learn the same lesson?
This is why I believe this moment, difficult as it is, presents a genuine opportunity.
Because farmers are already asking the right questions.
My phone has been ringing with people wanting to know what they can do differently. Not in five years. Now.
And the answer isn’t radical change overnight.
It’s small, practical steps.
Improving soil so it holds more nutrients and water.
Reducing reliance on synthetic fertilisers where possible.
Looking at alternative energy sources on farm.
None of this is theory. I’ve seen it work. I’ve done it myself.
At Fat Pig Farm in Tasmania, we’ve spent years focusing on soil health, producing food in a way that reduces reliance on external inputs all while storing more carbon than we emit. It’s not about being perfect. It’s about being more resilient.
Because resilience is what matters now.
Australia actually produces enough food to feed three times our population, exporting around 70 per cent of what we grow.
We have the land.
We have the knowledge.
We have the people.
What we need is to start applying that knowledge more widely.
That’s exactly why we created Grounded, which will be happening on April 22-23 in Victoria’s Otway Ranges.
It’s a place where farmers can come together, not to be told what to do, but to share what’s working. Practical ideas that can be applied straight away, in different ways, on different farms.
Because the goal is simple.
Keep producing food.
Keep it affordable.
And build a system that doesn’t fall apart every time the world hits a bump.
Yes, prices may rise in the short term. That’s the reality of where we are.
But if we use this moment properly, if we start making changes now, even small ones, we can reduce that pressure over time.
We can build a system that’s less exposed.
Less dependent.
And ultimately, better for farmers, consumers and the environment.
This isn’t about choosing sides.
It’s not about telling anyone they’ve been doing it wrong.
It’s about recognising that the world has changed, and we need to change with it.
Because if we don’t, the next shock will hurt even more.
But if we do, this could be the moment Australia builds a food system that’s stronger, more self-sufficient, and ready for whatever comes next.
For more information about Grounded 2026 click here.
Matthew Evans is a trained chef-turned-farmer, writer, broadcaster and food activist. He co-owns Fat Pig Farm south of Hobart and has been the host of six seasons of Gourmet Farmer on SBS, fronted two documentaries, For The Love Of Meat and What’s The Catch, and is the author of over a dozen books on food.
