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Washington: It was April 17, nearly three weeks ago, when Donald Trump declared Iran had “agreed to everything” he wanted and, in a flurry of social media posts and interviews, cast the war as all but over.
Iran’s parliamentary Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the regime’s key negotiators, responded by saying Trump had made seven claims in just one hour, and all of them were false.
Ghalibaf seems to have been closer to the mark. Three weeks later, Trump’s hopes for a deal to end the war are now confined to a one-page memorandum that would trigger another 30 days of negotiations on the details.
The document’s existence was widely covered by American news outlets on Wednesday (US time) after it was first reported by Barak Ravid at Axios, who relayed that it contained 14 points. Iran was poised to formally respond.
This masthead hasn’t seen the purported memorandum. According to The Wall Street Journal, it insists upon Iran attesting that it doesn’t seek nuclear weapons, dismantling its three main nuclear sites (or what’s left of them) and submitting to on-demand inspections with penalties attached. The US reportedly seeks a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, though this is not a red line.
Meanwhile, Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and the United States’ blockade of Iranian ports would be relaxed gradually, in tandem.
Plainly, a single-page list of dot points is more akin to a meeting agenda than a proper peace deal. Even if it is agreed to over the coming hours or days, it’s doubtful that it would hold much weight or provide a meaningful resolution.
Trump is as bullish as ever about the prospects of such a deal. In the Oval Office flanked by Ultimate Fighting Championship athletes, he said talks with Iran were tracking positively, even though the regime attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz – and US Gulf allies – just two days ago.
“A few days ago is a long time ago in the world of war,” Trump said. “We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.”
He said there was no deadline – although, in a social media post, he also threatened to restart bombing “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before”.
Trump again indulged the idea of pulling US forces out of the region without any firm deal. “If we left right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild,” he said. “They want to make a deal badly, and we’ll see if we get there.”
It makes more sense for the Iranians to agree to a one-page framework that doesn’t bind them to anything and buys time. The real question is why the US is pushing this half-measure when, just weeks ago, it claimed Tehran had “agreed to everything”.
The answer may lie in the fact that in seven days, Trump heads to Beijing to see Chinese President Xi Jinping, in what most analysts portray as the most important event of his second term so far.
This high-stakes meeting has already been delayed once because of the war. Postponing it again is almost unthinkable, especially so close to the date.
But it is also unpalatable for Trump to arrive at the Great Hall of the People encumbered by a messy, unresolved conflict, and indeed seeking help from Xi to corral the Iranians into reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel, explained what this situation would mean.
“In the background, China would press its global campaign to portray the United States as the cause of instability and itself as the responsible adult,” he said on X.
“Overall, Trump’s position and leverage at the summit is considerably weaker if he goes to Beijing with the war still unsettled, or even with renewed escalation. And the Iranians know that. So they are whittling down the terms to end the war to something much more modest than what Trump originally envisioned.”
It is also the case that Trump wants to spend his very limited time in Beijing talking trade, not enlisting Xi’s assistance with the strait.
During talks between the Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers in Beijing on Wednesday, Beijing’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, urged the “parties involved” to promptly restore “normal and safe passage” through the strait.
Ironically, getting that waterway open is now Trump’s most pressing issue after he dismissed it as irrelevant to US interests just weeks ago.
For the rest of the world, Australia included, that is not necessarily a bad outcome – a rough concept of a deal that at least starts reopening the strait, and leaves the rest for later.
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Michael Koziol is the North America correspondent for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald. He is a former Sydney editor, Sun-Herald deputy editor and a federal political reporter in Canberra.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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