And the very sight of American missiles slamming into Russian military facilities inside Russia would be a powerful illustration of Putin’s diplomatic failure.
The hope of Moscow’s hawks that Trump’s White House could be turned into a cudgel with which to beat Ukraine into submission would be dashed.
Putin and those around him would be forced to recognise that there could be no easy victory this year or next, and that their only realistic option is to accept an imperfect compromise.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.Credit: Getty Images, AP
There are a couple of wrinkles in this plan, though.
First, it is not clear how Ukraine would fire weapons designed to be launched from ships.
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And even assuming that technical challenge could be worked out (and that is feasible – the US Marine Corps has in the past fielded a ground-launch system), the US may not have many to spare.
The Pentagon is thought to have bought about 8000 Tomahawks in total and currently possesses just over 4000. While some experts suggest “hundreds” might be available for Ukraine, others say as few as four dozen may be going spare.
Used sparingly against extremely high-value targets, that is still a dangerous weapon.
But the Kremlin – along with most of the world – long ago learnt to distinguish between Trump’s words and his actions.
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As Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian intelligence officer, wrote on X, Russia currently sees the Tomahawk threat as a “bluff from a bullshit artist-in-chief”.
Given Putin’s own appetite for war, that is a key consideration.
The invasion of Ukraine has lasted much longer and gone much worse, than Putin could possibly have imagined.
At home, he is running a massive budget deficit; inflation and interest rates are soaring; there’s an acute shortage of workers; and Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have caused a domestic petrol crisis.
At the front, the 2025 northern summer campaign failed to achieve its goals, and at current rates of loss, he may have to launch an unpopular mobilisation of reserves to continue the war into 2026.
Yet most serious observers in Ukraine and Russia detect little sign that Putin is close to giving up on what he considers a civilisational mission to restore the Russian nation to its rightful place in history.
So perhaps Tomahawks themselves are not enough. Trump does have other weapons at his disposal, however.
In sheer numbers, the more important system is the Extended-Range Attack Munition, a new American-built air-launched missile, of which the Ukrainians are buying 3350.
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If Trump can prevail on Germany to finally send its Taurus cruise missiles, it would greatly contribute to Ukrainian resilience.
Meanwhile, Europe is inching closer to seizing $US300 billion ($462 billion) of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort.
Combine all those steps with the mounting fatigue and economic headaches inside Russia, and Putin may be forced to think more seriously about peace.
All of it, however, depends on Trump turning words into action: proving he is no bluffing bullshit artist.
A Taurus missile flies during a drill in South Korea in 2017.Credit: AP
The Telegraph, London
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