Ray Hickson
The bar will be lifted on promising filly Probability Theory in the coming months, but trainer Nacim Dilmi is content to keep it low one more time in the Midway Handicap (1300m) at Kensington on Monday.
Dilmi has a long-range plan of getting the three-year-old to the Group 1 Queensland Oaks and said there was plenty of method in the decision to miss a 1400m second-up run on the course proper to run over 100m shorter in lesser company.
Probability Theory was given a taste of stakes grade in her first preparation, running fifth to Green Spaces in the Spring Stakes, and even though she clearly wanted further she was too good on resumption over 1200m at Gosford.
“It was a convincing win; she is a filly who wants further, which we knew, so to do it at that distance was very good,” Dilmi said.
“I know 1400m [on Saturday] probably would have been the right step for her but 1300m on a bigger track than Gosford, I thought the race was more suitable for her.
“I’d like to give her another good run and give her every chance to win again. After that, we can step her up in distance again.”
The Domeland trainer said Probability Theory is bred to excel over distance on her dam’s side, so he is more than happy to put the Queensland Oaks down as her aim.
What he’d like to see from her at Kensington before she goes up in distance is to fine tune her race craft because he has no doubts about her ability or her potential.
“She’s still doing a few things wrong, she has plenty to learn and is not fully screwed down yet, ” he said.
“It’s more for the experience, she changed leg a couple of times in the straight at Gosford but given the experience in an easier race will be more beneficial for her.
“She’s an unassuming horse and just shows up on race day.”
Rachel King rode the filly in her first-up win and Dilmi is pleased she wanted to retain the ride.
Supplied by Racing NSW
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