All clubs run the same plays and shapes, but those who do it best have specific qualities: speed and reaction.
Cody Walker and South Sydney are the perfect example. The Rabbitohs score most of their tries off set plays. Why? Because Cody does it at speed, and he reacts to the defensive decisions of the team he’s lining up against.
Compare that to the Bulldogs’ set plays, which aren’t done at speed and the defence is under no stress.
Imagine defence is like a chain. On the edges, there are four links to the chain: back-rower, half, centre and winger.
What you’ve got to do as a ballplayer – as Cody does – is break one of those links in the chain, by getting one defender doing the opposite of what the other defenders either side of them are doing.
The job of the attacking half is to make one of those defenders – either the back-rower or the half – in the defensive line make a poor decision.
Cody does this with deception, with bodies in motion, change of speed and dummying passes. But the key is, he does it with speed, and he does it straight. The other part of that, is that the attacking fullback has to come around to create the extra number on the outside to put the defending centre and winger under stress.
The fullback needs speed because if the half does his job and holds up the back-rower and the half, you create the three-on-two on the outside. Reece Walsh and Kalyn Ponga are experts at this.
Canterbury’s halves of Lachlan Galvin and Matt Burton are not threatening the back-rower or the half in the defensive line consistently enough. And, when they do, Bulldogs fullback Connor Tracey doesn’t have the speed or the passing threat that players like Reece and Kalyn have.
If you watch Cody, he breaks the chain. He creates room for Matt Dufty or Jye Gray or Latrell Mitchell, and they nail that space.
Another team who are struggling with this is the Dragons. Their halves of Daniel Atkinson and, until recently, Kyle Flanagan, aren’t breaking the link around the back-rower and half, and Clint Gutherson hasn’t got the speed at fullback.
The other thing the Bulldogs are missing is a run threat out of dummy-half.
Last week, Bailey Hayward had no runs.
Warren Ryan always used to say to me, the simplest, but most dangerous, spot to attack from is dummy half.
With the six agains and the quicker ruck, you must have a run threat out of dummy half.
If you look at Cronulla, for example, they’re a completely different team when Blayke Brailey runs. The past two years he’s run a lot more, and the Sharks look like a different team because of it.
The solution for Canterbury is that they need to play a style that suits their spine – their creative players.
Their set plays aren’t working. Last week against the Cowboys and the week before against Brisbane, they had so much ball early and they just couldn’t score.
The Bulldogs must have more of a threat from dummy half, and a running threat off the bench who can play dummy half.
Why the Dolphins can play finals football
The Bulldogs come up against the Dolphins on Thursday night, and I think the team that wins will need to score more than 30 points.
I believe the Dolphins have the best back line with speed and power in the competition: Herbie Farnworth, Jack Bostock, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Jamayne Isaako.
And, they’re getting fed ball by Isaiya Katoa, who is creating all that room around where the back-rower and the half defend. And that makes them a dangerous team.
What’s interesting is Bulldogs coach Cameron Ciraldo has named Sean O’Sullivan on the bench. The only position Sean can really play is halfback. He can maybe fill in a bit at dummy half, but he’s an out-and-out halfback.
I imagine they’ll be looking for Hayward to play 80 minutes, so the question is, do they start with Sean O’Sullivan at halfback, put Galvin at five-eighth, and move Burton either to the bench or elsewhere?
I suppose we’ll have to wait and see.
On the other side, the Dolphins bench looks really strong. They’ve got powerful forwards, Jeremy Marshall-King has been named on the extended bench, and I wonder if coach Kristian Woolf will make a late change around the dummy half closer to kick-off.
It’s a big game for two back-rowers in particular: Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Jacob Preston.
I think Finefeuiaki will get an Origin call-up for Queensland and be named in Billy Slater’s 17.
I had Preston in my NSW Origin team a couple of weeks ago, but Haumole Olakau’atu has been on fire, and I think Preston will now be pushing to get a bench spot.
If there’s one team that’s outside the top eight at the moment who can make finals, it’s the Dolphins.
On paper, their team is really well balanced. They have strong, mobile forwards, they’ve got the best back line in the competition and a powerful bench.
The match-up I’m looking forward to on Thursday is Katoa against Galvin. In five years’ time, they might be our NSW halves pairing.
I’m a big fan of Katoa, but I think this year he’s been good without being consistently great, and we know Galvin is under all sorts of pressure.
But Katoa, for me, is just the complete halfback. There are no weaknesses in his skills and his technique in his passing and running game make him the complete No.7.
Joey’s tip: Dolphins by 12
First try scorer: Jamayne Isaako
Man of the match: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.
The Queensland pairing that makes me nervous
The big question for Queensland is: Reece Walsh or Kalyn Ponga at fullback?
I think they’ll go with Reece at fullback, only because Kalyn can play anywhere at 14, and him coming onto the field after 30 minutes – when fatigue starts to take its toll – terrifies me.
Ponga’s speed, footwork and strength mean he would be a nightmare for NSW forwards, especially if there are plenty of six agains.
Kalyn debuted when he was 20 in 2018, and went on for Jarrod Wallace as a middle forward, and he made 29 tackles and absolutely carved up.
I thought Reece was fantastic against the Roosters last week. When Adam Reynolds went down with a head knock, he was sparked, and he was playing in attack as a halfback.
Walsh and Ponga together are a NSW horror movie.
The other talking point is Cameron Munster, but never knock a champion.
His form reflects where Melbourne are at, but he would be absolutely steaming with the criticism. Munster’s mentality is if you say he can’t do it, he will get a bee in his bonnet and he will explode in Origin I once again. It scares me.
Game one is a must-win for NSW because game two is in Melbourne and you don’t want to head to Suncorp for a game-three decider. The Blues have only done it three times in 47 years.
Sports news, results and expert commentary. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.
