As the war in the Middle East rages on for a third week, there are concerns the conflict could trigger “lone wolf” terror attacks on US soil.
The US has been rocked by a string of violent attacks since launching its joint Israeli operation against Iran on February 28.
In one terrifying attack in Virginia, a gunman yelled “Allahu Akbar” and opened fire in a university classroom, killing one person and injuring two others.
In another, a man rammed a vehicle laden with explosives into a Michigan synagogue filled with children.
The gunman was later revealed to be the brother of a former commander in the Lebanese Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.
The attacks – which have not been directly linked to Iran – came after the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reportedly warned of potential lone-wolf attacks – those committed by individuals – as well as cyber attacks amid the strikes in Iran.
“Although a large-scale physical attack is unlikely, Iran and its proxies probably pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland, and will almost certainly escalate retaliatory actions — or calls to action — if reports of the Ayatollah’s death are confirmed,” the DHS wrote in a February 28 bulletin, obtained by ABC News, referencing the assassination of Iran’s former Supreme Leader.
“Lone offenders in the Homeland have not historically been motivated by issues related to Iran, the IRGC, or Shia violent extremism; however, the existential threat to the Iranian regime and increased US or Israeli actions could prompt some US-based violent extremists or hate crime perpetrators to attack targets perceived to be Jewish, pro-Israel, or linked to the US government or military,” it added.
Dr Mariam Farida, a lecturer in Terrorism Studies in the Department of Security Studies at Macquarie University, said the chance of a terror attack on the US is more likely because the “military campaign by the US and Israel has just intensified in the past few days”.
She said there’s more of a chance that a terror attack is carried out by lone individuals who have either been motivated or are personally affected by the war, rather than groups, as it’s easier for them to evade authorities.
“In the past five to 10 years, we’ve seen a shift in the terrorist attacks to be much more individual based because they’re harder to track,” Dr Farida told news.com.au.
“It’s easy to track a network of groups who are trying to plot and plan an attack. It’s harder if you want to find an individual among millions and millions.
“And we all know that nowadays you don’t really need complicated weapons or expensive weapons or to create a bomb to create a terrorist attack. You can commit a terrorist attack by using your own vehicle or your own car or knives.”
She said potential terror attacks could be carried out by individuals in any location, including places of business or religious significance.
“It’s to create that fear and to get the publicity … so it can be it can be anyone or anything.”
‘Tipping point’ turns individuals into violent perpetrators
Dr Farida said the more intense the war becomes, the more likely radicalised individuals will experience a “tipping point” and cross the line to become violent perpetrators.
“There’s always one event that creates a shift in the person’s mind that moves them from a person who is not willing to use violence in their pursuit to yes, they are ready to commit violence,” she said.
“It could very much be linked to anything that can happen in the war now. I don’t think it’s a matter of waiting (for the war to continue) because every day, the situation is changing … so if you see more military intensification, then it’s more likely, a terrorist attack might happen.”
Hezbollah commander linked to US attack
Dr Farida believes Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, the 41-year-old Lebanese-born US citizen who is accused of driving a truck into Temple Israel in Michigan after learning four of his family members were killed in an Israeli strike in Lebanon last week was “deeply motivated by the loss” of his family.
After ramming his vehicle into the building, part of which was set ablaze, Ayman exchanged fire with an armed security guard and died by suicide. No one else was killed in the attack – which the FBI called a “targeted act of violence against the Jewish community”.
In a statement on social media following the attack, the IDF claimed Ayman’s brother, Ibrahim Muhammad Ghazali, was in charge of managing weapons for a unit within a specialised branch of the Hezbollah terrorist group.
“The unit is responsible for launching hundreds of rockets toward Israeli civilians throughout the war,” it wrote on X.
“Ibrahim was eliminated in an IAF strike on a Hezbollah military structure last week.”
Dr Farida said: “We still don’t know to what extent he is involved with his brother as a member” of the group but she suggested “the deep loss of his family members has been a key motivation for him to commit the attack”.
Threat of US drone attack on California
As well as lone actors, prospective terror attacks on the US could take other forms including those carried out by sleeper agents – groups placed in foreign countries waiting to be activated to carry out terror attacks – or cyber attacks.
Earlier this month, a pro-Iranian hacker group claimed responsibility for a cyber attack on major US medical technology company Stryker, in “retaliation” for a deadly strike on an Iranian school.
The FBI also issued a warning to police departments in California that Iran “allegedly aspired” to launch drones at the state last month. However the alert said it was based on “unverified information”.
“We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United State Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran,” the FBI said in an alert, as per ABC News.
California Governor Gavin Newsom later assured there was no imminent threat, writing on X: “As it relates to drone strikes, we’ve been aware of that information. ”Drone issues have been always top of mind, and we’ve assembled some work groups specifically around those concerns.”
Dr Farida said she wouldn’t be surprised if Iran were to use drone as a terror attack tactic but she said she’d be very surprised it were successful.
“The US military is at heightened preparation for that because you think the first thing on their mind is how to protect US citizens in the US from any potential missile attack or a drone attack”.
Donald Trump told reported last week that he’s not worried about Iran carrying out a terror attack in the US in retaliation for the war.
When asked if he was concerned about such attacks, the US President told reporters outside the White House: “No, I’m not.”
He later told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland that the US has located all Iranian “sleeper cells”.
“We know where Iranian ‘sleeper cells’ are … we have eyes on all of them,” he said.
Ramifications of a possible terror attack
If Iran were to attack the US, Dr Farida believes the US would retaliate with continued Iranian assassinations and it would shift the theatre of war to US soil – what she described as a “very dangerous thing”.
“Once you move the theatre of war from Iran into the US then the intensification of the conflict will only be heightened even further,” Dr Farida said.
“I’m not sure if this is what Iran wants to play at the moment. In my opinion, I think it’s better using other means like oil prices and (shutting) the Start of Hormuz and trying to create more pressure economically.”
She said a possible terror attack would also strip Iran of credibility in its claim that it is acting in self-defence.
“How they’ve been carrying out their campaign so far is that they did not initiate the war, it was a war that was started by the US on a on a pre-emptive mechanism and they did not want to launch any war, so that would be shifting.”
In the US, an attack would not only drum up fear among US citizens, it would also shatter perceptions of US supremacy in the war.
“There’s a public perception where Trump’s administration doesn’t want to appear as weak or as if they’re losing in this war. And obviously, if the American population starts to feel not at ease with what’s going on, if there’s a number of terrorist attacks that’s been happening, that will have to create a shift in the Trump administration and how they carry the sword.”
