Australia’s capacity to predict climate change and its impacts on our way of life has suffered a heavy blow, with dozens of scientists from CSIRO’s Environment Research Unit to face the axe.
Staff were told on Thursday that 102 full-time equivalent positions would be cut from the unit, with a large number to come from climate modelling teams.
The losses are part of 350 roles to be cut in a current redundancy round, and follow about 800 jobs lost over the past year.
CSIRO insiders fear for the future of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model, built in partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology, universities and international partners.
ACCESS is an Earth system model which, CSIRO says, “provides a national weather, climate and Earth system modelling capability for operations and research”. It is used by climate scientists across the country to underpin and inform their own research and modelling about the impacts of climate change on landscapes, oceans, animals and agricultural viability.
A CSIRO spokesperson would not confirm concerns from scientists within the organisation that ACCESS will face severe cuts, saying that no decision would be made until a formal consultation period had concluded.
Leading climate scientist Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, described the cuts as “one of the worst things I’ve seen during my career”.
“If we don’t have the Australian climate model, then we simply cannot replicate Australia’s climate and weather within an accurate envelope; it’s just not possible,” she told this masthead.
“None of the other climate models that exist across the world can do that.”
A CSIRO spokesperson said addressing the pressing problem of climate change would remain a key focus for the national science agency.
“The proposed changes will bring a renewed emphasis on climate adaptation and resilience research and reinforce our unique capabilities and national leadership in freshwater, marine, climate and adaptation science, circularity and social sciences,” they said.
The changes were designed to reduce duplication within the research unit, which was formed by an earlier merging of two units, the CSIRO spokesperson said.
“CSIRO’s climate science capability will be retained.”
However, some research areas will be reduced, to focus on “areas of greatest impact”.
“The proposed changes sharpen our effort by reducing activity in selected areas including atmospheric chemistry modelling, Indo-Pacific ocean dynamics and some operational support so we can better align our climate portfolio with our future science priorities and deliver the strongest possible outcomes for Australia.”
Director of ACCESS-NRI Professor Andy Hogg, who leads a national research infrastructure organisation that supports ACCESS, said the cuts would render Australia’s capacity to model Earth systems “sub-critical”.
He said any cuts to Earth systems modelling could hamper Australia’s capacity to monitor air pollution, greenhouse gasses and short-lived climate gasses.
“If it affects our ability to understand how, for example, the El Nino Southern Oscillation works in our climate model; they’re critical aspects of the science that CSIRO needs to be able to do, to be pre-eminent in the world.”
A CSIRO insider said the Environment Research Unit and the Earth system modelling team within it were the only permanently funded unit in Australia working on climate modelling full-time within the country. The remainder – including in universities and centres of excellence – were working on short-term funding arrangements and contracts.
Scientists who rely on ACCESS use it to predict the impacts of climate change, and used it to contribute to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Earth’s climate future.
Perkins-Kirkpatrick said the cuts would slash Australia’s contribution to domestic and international climate science at a time of climate crisis.
“To have the climate modelling capability in Australia in jeopardy in the way that it is [is] a serious detriment to not just our capability to contribute science at the world scale, but also what we’re doing here locally, to better arm Australia’s strategy and prepare for climate change.”
It was a concern echoed by Hogg.
“If you keep slicing little bits off here and there, eventually you get to the stage where you can no longer do a good job,” he said.
“And I think CSIRO, as a pre-eminent research agency, needs to have scientific expertise in climate, which is the biggest problem our society is facing.”
The CSIRO spokesperson said the Environment Research Unit would remain one of the organisation’s largest research units despite the cuts.
“No decisions on proposed changes will be made until the formal consultation process has concluded.”
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Bianca Hall is The Age’s environment and climate reporter, and has worked in a range of roles including as a senior writer, city editor, and in the federal politics bureau in Canberra.Connect via X, Facebook or email.