Donald Trump’s approval rating plummeted this week to its worst ever level, matching the putrid mark he set in the aftermath of the Capitol Riot back in 2021.
Yes, you read that correctly. The US President is as ill thought of now as when he had just defied American voters by trying to stay in power, with violent repercussions, after losing an election. Clearly the Iran War has not done much for his image.
But there is someone else, in US politics, who rivals Mr Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity. A collective someone: his political opposition.
The Democratic Party’s approval rating is underwater by 19 per cent, and a clear majority of Americans hold an unfavourable view of it, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
Eleven years into the Trump era, the Democrats still haven’t found a way to oppose him without alienating much of the country. They still manage to repel voters on one flank while disappointing those on the other. And the urgency of that problem is growing.
The midterm elections, due in November, will determine which of America’s two major parties controls Congress for the back half of Mr Trump’s presidency. And as soon as next year, candidates for the 2028 presidential election will start to declare themselves. The potential nominees are already quietly, but methodically, laying the groundwork.
There was a small but intriguing report in Axios, this week, concerning one of those possible contenders, the left-wing New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
“Whether AOC jumps into the race is one of the biggest X factors in the 2028 Democratic primary,” the publication said. It went on to note that Ms Ocasio-Cortez’s recent schedule had been, shall we say, not inconsistent with someone preparing to run.
She’s been zigzagging across the US with stops in the most important swing states, giving speeches, rallying alongside Democratic colleagues and meeting with party powerbrokers.
“What happens in Georgia happens to New York, what happens to Tennessee happens to California, what happens to Louisiana happens to all of us, because this is America. We are not divided by state, we are united by our humanity and common citizenship,” Ms Ocasio-Cortez said during one such event, in Atlanta.
Bhaskar Sunkara, president of The Nation magazine, founder of Jacobin, and author of The Socialist Manifesto: The Case for Radical Politcs in an Era of Extreme Inequality, is from the same loose space, on the American left, as Ms Ocasio-Cortez.
He doesn’t think she should run for the presidency. But he has observed a “change” in her style, as a politician, that may hint at the best way forward for her party.
“She’s changing as a politician,” Mr Sunkara told news.com.au.
“Early on, she was more divisive. She drifted way too far into hyper-progressive rhetoric on divisive issues. Now she’s communicating in a much clearer way; doing things like spending time talking to Trump voters in her district.”
That last part feels important. America has grown more and more polarised, with each side of politics seeming to talk at the other, instead of to it.
“I think a lot of us are actually interested in learning why people are voting for the right. In discussing issues without hectoring or moralising,” said Mr Sunkara.
He’s a former vice chair of the Democratic Socialists of America, a non-profit political organisation which counts New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani among its members. It also endorsed Ms Ocasio-Cortez for her congressional district.
Mr Sunkara has been in Australia this week, sharing his views on the future of the left around the world. You can read the lecture he gave in Sydney here.
Ms Ocasio-Cortez has claimed her ambitions are not “positional”. She’s previously laughed off suggestions that she could be president, without quite rejecting the idea either.
“My ambition is way bigger than (any particular job),” she said earlier this year.
“It’s to change this country.”
Mr Sunkara is of the opinion that she could do more to accomplish that change by running not for the White House, but for the Senate.
There have been whispers – louder than whispers, actually – that Ms Ocasio-Cortez could challenge the Democrats’ leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, who currently holds one of New York’s two seats.
“My personal view is that she should run for the Senate. A presidential campaign would be a mistake,” Mr Sunkara said.
He argued that Ms Ocasio-Cortez had “the potential to be a very viable candidate” in the Democratic Party’s presidential primaries, but “not so much nationally”, where she would encounter a less sympathetic electorate than she’s used to her in comfortably Democratic congressional district.
In other words, even if she were to claim the Democrats’ nomination, she would struggle to beat a Republican candidate in the subsequent general election.
Mr Sunkar’s suggestion is that Ms Ocasio-Cortez could enter the Senate next year, be an apprentice of sorts to 84-year-old Senator Bernie Sanders, who shares most of her views, and then essentially take over from him once he retires.
“He will most likely be leaving soon. And it will be an important moment,” he said.
“Spend a couple of years with Bernie, and then be the representative in our Senate. I think she has a very clear path to do that.
“This is an important moment for her. Senate seats like this don’t come along often. It could be a very easy, runaway Senate seat.
“I’m not sure if she’s actually earnestly exploring a presidential run, or building her profile and leverage.”
Whatever role Ms Ocasio-Cortez plays, Mr Sunkara believes her party needs to adopt her move away from being overly divisive.
“I wouldn’t necessarily say that I want to socially moderate on every policy, but it’s very important to moderate our language and how we communicate about divisive social issues,” he argued.
“We’re not looking for something extra for a marginalised group, we just want the same sort of fairness for everyone. That’s different to how even the mainstream of the party talks about a lot of issues. There’s a voter backlash to things that happened from, say, 2016-2022.
“My view is we need a different sort of politics to break through this impasse. A politics that is not hectoring, doesn’t talk to people about their privilege or whatever else, but actually meets people where they are. Talks about the economic issues they face. And presents a credible, positive alternative.”
