Brought to you by BULLS N’ BEARS
Andrew Todd
There is just one question the world and markets care about right now. Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed?
Fresh into another week of 20 per cent less oil and gas, US President Donald Trump has cracked under the pressure and seemingly hit the drink.
The Don’s gone full pirate mode, blasting out rum-fuelled social media posts at all hours of the night, whilst simultaneously slapping a naval blockade of his own, copying the Iranian regime’s policy in the Strait.
The US fully blockaded Iranian ports and coastal areas in the Strait of Hormuz after ceasefire talks collapsed last week.
Iran had already shut the narrow waterway earlier, but just in case, it’s now double shut.
Australian Energy and materials stocks twitched on every headline, with a flotilla of tankers now flying across the Pacific to our aid.
As if it couldn’t get any worse, Wednesday night was marred by an overworked Viva Energy refinery in Geelong catching fire.
We are down to just two refineries in Australia – perfect timing for one to catch fire, knocking off forty per cent of petrol production or 48,000 litres per day. The constant disruptions had Anthony Albanese scrambling to secure more fuel supply throughout Asia.
With inflation warnings now at the forefront and the federal budget in focus amid rising energy costs, the RBA is now being backed in for rate rise after rate rise, as if cost-of-living pressures weren’t bad enough.
Across the continent in WA mining circles, a Supreme Court judgment this week found Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting, had lost its bid to keep all royalties from the massive Hope Downs iron ore project, operated with Rio Tinto.
The Wright family, heirs of Lang Hancock’s old partner, won rights to 50 per cent of past and future royalties – estimated at $14M a year and potentially costing up to one billion dollars, according to some in the chattering class.
Runners of the week have been pretty solid on a rocky week. IPOs are officially back, taking out our top spot. As a few biotechs have shown some life!
BISON RESOURCES LTD (ASX: BSR)
Up 375% (20c – 95c)
This week’s Bulls N’ Bears Runner of the Week is newcomer Bison Resources, which listed on the ASX on Thursday to raucous applause, following a $5.5 million capital raise at 20 cents per share.
The book was clearly well-built with little to no sellers on day one of the IPO, forcing those who wanted in on the precious metals story to pay up.
And pay up they did. By Friday morning, the stock had surged 375 per cent to a high of 95c, the best performing IPO since the mighty Metal Powder Works last year.
Bison Resources has assembled a portfolio of four projects within the prolific Carlin Trend in Nevada.
The trend is one of the world’s most productive gold belts and hosts numerous world-class gold and silver deposits.
It certainly doesn’t hurt that Nevada is also ranked as the most attractive mining jurisdiction in the Fraser Institute’s most recent Annual Survey of Mining Companies. The state hosts almost 75 per cent of the total US gold production.
The projects lie in good company, surrounded by the world-class Goldstrike, Bald Mountain and Maverick Springs mines.
Maverick Springs is owned by the $200 million market-cap ASX neighbour, Sun Silver Resources, which has also seen its fair share of recent share price resurgence.
Bison’s projects sit just 7km from Sun Silver’s deposit, which contains 539 million ounces of silver equivalent and is the largest pre-production primary silver asset on the ASX.
The company says its grounds share lithological and structural settings similar to those that host Nevada’s largest gold and silver deposits. Adding sauce to the exploration pie, remote sensing analysis has already identified spectral anomalies, providing immediate targets for follow-up exploration.
Core to the immediate strategy is its Ruby Lake project. Spectral data analysis has identified a cluster of anomalies pointing to a potential carbonate replacement or skarn-style deposit, ripe for a maiden drilling blitz.
Bison is now cashed up and ready to roll out its multi-stage exploration program, including airborne aeromagnetic surveys, rock chip sampling and follow-up geophysics ahead of the all-important drilling.
One thing is for sure: even with global markets’ uncertainty, precious metals and IPOs remain at the top of the menu for investors.
GENETIC SIGNATURES LTD (ASX: GSS)
Up 156% (8c – 20.5c)
Runner-up for the week is molecular diagnostics company Genetic Signatures, which unveiled an equipment supply deal of reagents and consumables for gastrointestinal screening at Hvidovre Hospital in Denmark.
Hvidovre is one of Denmark’s leading public hospitals and has signed on to an initial 28,000 sample tests in the first year, with an estimated 3 per cent annual growth.
The company says the medical facility will then move to fully implement Genetic Signatures’ EasyScreen Pan-Enteric assay. The test enables simultaneous detection of 24 gastrointestinal pathogens, including bacteria, viruses and parasites from a single patient sample in a single automated run.
The competitive tender process was won by the plucky Aussie biotech, reflecting growing international recognition of the continued advantages of diagnostic medicine and its growing adoption.
Across a full twelve-month period, sales from the Hvidovre supply agreement are expected to account for roughly 6 per cent of its current sales.
The deal even has a ten-year term, extendable for up to two 12-month periods, providing a long-term and highly sought-after ‘recurring revenues’ for Genetic’s bottom line.
NARRYER METALS LTD (ASX: NYM)
Up 148% (2.3c – 5.7c)
Finishing fast to take out bronze is our late runner and critical minerals explorer, Narryer Metals.
The company’s shares more than doubled on Friday to 5.7 cents after it announced a heavily oversubscribed and premium-priced placement, with veteran Perth mining investor Tim Goyder coming in as a new substantial shareholder.
The company unveiled the $1.06 million raise on Friday at 3 cents per share, a tidy 30 per cent premium to the previous closing price of 2.3 cents, most of which went to the new cornerstone.
Goyder, who was crowned a billionaire in 2023, brings serious mining pedigree and ASX success.
He was a founder and former chairman of exploration giant Chalice Mining and also chaired Liontown Resources, which at one stage was worth nearly $8 billion, and has since developed its Kathleen Valley lithium mine.
More recently, Goyder transformed WA gold explorer Minerals 260 from a $30 million micro-cap into a $1.7 billion developer after growing the Bullabulling gold resource beyond 4.5 million ounces outside Coolgardie.
When the seasoned operator takes a material stake in an early-stage resources play, the market sits up and takes notice and today was no different.
Proceeds from the placement will go towards Narryer’s portfolio of critical minerals projects in Australia and Canada, with the immediate focus on its Australian assets.
Narryer says its Rocky Gully project near Albany in WA has returned high-grade intercepts of scandium, gallium and rare earth elements, with mineralisation hosted in shallow clays.
Meanwhile, its Muckanippie project in South Australia is emerging as an ace in the hole. The titanium play has already delivered high-grade heavy mineral sands, rich in rutile and leucoxene, and looks like it could be the world’s newest mineral sands jurisdiction of global significance.
For a micro-cap with a market capitalisation still under $10 million, even after the surge, the Goyder backing adds genuine credibility; you need only look at the charts of his previous endeavours.
IMMUTEP LTD (ASX: IMM)
Up 120% (4c – 8.8c)
Rounding out our Runners is Bulls N’ Bears regular Immutep, after it revealed America’s Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had granted it Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) for its lead candidate eftilagimod alfa (efti) for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma.
With a market sector valued at US$1.4 billion (A$2.1 billion) in 2024, soft tissue sarcoma is a rare cancer that develops in soft tissues such as muscle, fat, nerves, or blood vessels, often presenting as a painless, growing lump.
The FDA’s ODD program was developed to encourage research into therapies for rare diseases that specifically affect fewer than 200,000 people in the United States.
The key benefits to the program include seven years of market exclusivity in the US, exemption from FDA user fees, up to 25 per cent in US clinical tax credits and an exemption from the Pediatric Research Equity Act.
The company says the designation recognises the potential therapeutic relevance of efti in soft tissue sarcoma, supporting its glowing clinical data.
Immutep says that in 38 evaluable patients, the study met its primary endpoint, with 51.5 per cent showing no tumour growth. The results comfortably exceeded the pre-specified target of 35 per cent and stack up strongly against historical benchmarks of around 15 per cent from radiotherapy alone.
The news couldn’t have come at a better time for the company. Last month, the company shed nearly 90 per cent of its value, or half a billion dollars in market cap, on the terrible news from an independent commission that recommended discontinuing its TACTI-004 Phase III study on non-small cell lung cancer for its lead candidate, efti.
It looks like efti has more legs left in it after all, perhaps just not for non-small cell lung cancer. Immutep also reported $99 million in the bank as of December, leaving the drug developer significantly cashed up and on the comeback, as its share price showed this week.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: mattbirney@bullsnbears.com.au
