That is something you can sell to fans. But in fact it’s a deal that looks better than it is. Three first rounders alone is not as good as the potential, or likely, Sydney deal which would be two first rounders – this year and next – and a player or players, most likely Will Hayward and/or James Rowbottom. Both are contracted.
Ben Ainsworth has ended up at Carlton after a multi-club deal also involving Corey Durdin and picks, so he wasn’t directly connected to either the Sydney or Geelong’s deals.
There is a bidding war for Charlie Curnow.Credit: Getty Images
Carlton have long liked both Ainsworth and Hayward, so if you think of a scenario whereby they end up with both, along with two first-rounders, but lose Curnow, that is sellable.
Geelong’s offer, with three first rounders, has the ring of a better deal, but is it? The Cats’ pick this year is later than the Swans (19 v 11). They are also likely to finish above the Swans next year – especially if Curnow is in the team – and so next year’s pick would also be worse than the Swans’. The year after that is the diluted Tasmania draft, so the Cats’ first round pick would likely be somewhere in the late twenties.
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So the Swans’ potential deal would be two better picks in the draft this year and next, and a player of Hayward/Rowbottom calibre compared to a third Geelong first round pick, probably somewhere in the 20s.
What the Cats’ latest offer has done is ratchet up the market for Curnow with serious offerings that have ensured that the Blues are reaching the point – with either club – of being too hard to refuse.
The best thing to happen to Carlton this September was that Blues fans saw Cody Walker on grand final day in the under-age game. They’re excited. They already knew about Harry Dean’s precocious talent. Smart Blues fans know they are not winning the flag next year, and are on-board with making sure the club prioritises having the draft picks to bringing that pair in.
Many fans will still look at Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni walking out, and then losing Curnow, and wonder what happened to the team’s spine. They couldn’t stop the free agent pair leaving, but the Blues did get good draft picks in return. Curnow, too, will command a handsome draft return.
As important as the draft capital, the departure of the trio opens up a huge amount of salary cap space next year, which creates huge leverage for free agents in 12 months’ time and beyond.
Losing Charlie is different to losing the other pair because he is a player you come to watch. He puts bums on seats, then gets those bums out of those seats and jumping in their air like it’s a Nirvana mosh pit. The Blues have no other player who does that.
Walker, looking and playing like his dad, Andrew, is the type of talent who will be that player.
Petracca is a less-problematic sell at Melbourne. And Clayton Oliver requires little selling to fans because there is a strong element of fatigue about the continued speculation and drama around him – in fact around both of them.
The Oliver deal will be done and accepted by fans. The Petracca trade is more akin to Curnow’s – it needs to be seen to be a good deal. And it will be.
The Suns getting what is now pick No.8 for Sam Flanders is the sort of sweetener that will be at the core of a sellable deal. Demons fans have faith the club knows how to draft well with early picks – see Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay – which is not something fans can say at some other clubs.
Those were the days: Melbourne stars Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver are set to be at new clubs in 2026.Credit: AFL Photos
But they can’t hurry to that deal for fear of being seen to have not worked hard enough for the best deal.
Which brings us to Merrett, who is the most problematic in myriad ways.
As good as Petracca and Curnow are, neither is a captain, and neither of them is their club’s only A-grader. Melbourne have Gawn and Kozzie Pickett, and Carlton have Jacob Weitering, a battle-weary Patrick Cripps and, between injuries, Sam Walsh.
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Despite Merrett’s best endeavours to blow up his relationship with the club to make a return untenable, Essendon don’t yet consider things beyond the point of no return.
Trading him can be interpreted as tacit acceptance that there is some truth in Merrett’s criticisms. The only way they can sell their captain and best player is if they can sell the idea they are better off without him. Again, they are not there yet.
If you are a club insisting you have only traded a player because you’d be mad not to, given what was on offer, then you don’t do that with a week to go in the trade period.
Does that suit Hawthorn? No, not at all. Do they pivot? Well, theoretically they should have a point at which they cut their losses and look elsewhere. But, in reality, where else do they look? There are no other A-grade midfielders on the market.
So, all three clubs hasten slowly in the trade period, knowing a good trade is one that can be sold to fans.
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