It’s only round four, but already there’s pressure piling up on certain coaches and players across the NRL.
This is part and parcel of modern rugby league, especially for some of the game’s best halves – and Thursday’s Gotcha4Life Cup clash between Manly and the Roosters will be all that pressure and expectation on individuals playing out in real time.
Sea Eagles coach Anthony Seibold seriously needs a win to silence the doubters. Jake Trbojevic, such a warrior for so long, has had his future questioned.
Obviously, Daly Cherry-Evans is under an intense spotlight, and he and Sam Walker are facing scrutiny over their slow start as a halves combination.
The Roosters have far too much talent to be sitting 1-3 by the end of the weekend. If they don’t improve their discipline though, they deserve to be 1-3.
So far, their best completion rate has been just 74 per cent in their win over Souths, and across three games, is the worst in NRL. So are the 7.7 penalties they give away each match.
Poor ball control and conceding penalties just puts so much pressure on your ruck defence, and in turn your edge defence, which is where Cherry-Evans and Walker have really been targeted.
The Broncos second half against the Storm is a great example of how nailing the simplest part of the game makes all the difference. Brisbane improved a first half completion rate of 62 per cent to 91 per cent after the break and turned a 14-0 deficit into an 18-14 win over Melbourne in Melbourne.
Living on the edge: how to truly exploit a defensive mismatch
I’ve got no doubt Daly will get booed at Brookvale Oval for the first time – Manly fans are great haters and it’ll be a fantastic tribal atmosphere.
In purely football terms, this might be the most pressure Cherry-Evans has found himself under. His defence has been highlighted and will be targeted again by Manly – the 10 tries conceded down the Roosters’ right side are easily the most in the NRL.
Not only has his decision-making been an issue, but his contact and tackling has been poor too. Daly is averaging 22 tackles a game so far this year, opposition attacks will only increase that until he and the Roosters work it out.
Manly’s big strike weapon will be sending Tolutau Koula – their best player to start the year – and the Trbojevic brothers, Tom and Ben, at DCE all night.
Although the other edge could be just as big an issue for the Roosters; Sam Walker has a massive task opposite Haumole Olakau’atu. He needs Angus Crichton and Billy Smith to really help him given the size difference and the way Olakau’atu can isolate a playmaker in defence.
Crichton has been down on form, like the Roosters in general, but he needs a big game – starting with more depth on his runs to really generate momentum and mongrel in his contact.
While the edges are where the killer blows will probably come, I think it’s around the middle where those attacking chances will actually start.
The way the ruck is being officiated this season, the referees are giving out set restarts like Smarties in the first 10 to 15 minutes of games, which creates fatigue and back-pedalling forwards.
So both dummy-halves – Reece Robson and Jake Simpkins – need to be really smart about how they control the attack to take advantage of this. Trick shots around the ruck with your halves and star fullbacks Tom Trbojevic and James Tedesco are the key to really exploiting either defence. Work them over through the middle, then go wide to your strike back-rowers and centres.
The Roosters have big names who need to lift, but so do Manly. Luke Brooks needs to improve and play to his strengths.
That means running and leaving the kicking and game management to Jamal Fogarty. At the moment, Brooks seems to be caught between the two styles of play. But he’s got Joey Walsh snapping at his heels, so he needs to deliver sooner rather than later.
Both James Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic can carry their teams to victory, and I’m tipping the Roosters, but not with any confidence. I’m putting my faith in a team with so much talent, but Brookvale Oval often lifts Manlyand the hill will be restless with DCE coming home.
Joey’s tip: Roosters by four
First tryscorer: Mark Nawaqanitawase
Man of the match: James Tedesco
Reynolds or Hunt? The dummy-half detail in Brisbane’s No.7 debate
They say rugby league is a soap opera, but the Broncos are prime-time drama all on their own at the moment.
I smell an upset in Friday’s local derby. I think the Dolphins can knock them off given Payne Haas is out injured and Brisbane have another week of unwanted headlines with defence coach Ben Te’o resigning.
The other ongoing issue for Michael Maguire is how he uses Adam Reynolds. Firstly, the question is, just how bad are his ribs? Rib cartilage injuries are notoriously painful and can linger for weeks, so managing the veteran No.7 will take real finesse from his coach.
Especially given it’s becoming impossible to ignore the change in Brisbane when Ben Hunt starts at halfback – the Broncos have won all six of these games when he’s been in the No.7 jumper since the start of last season.
Why? Because hooker Cory Paix very rarely runs from dummy-half. And Reynolds is not a run-threat at halfback either. So when they play together, Brisbane’s attack around the ruck becomes quite lateral, no real pressure is put on the marker defence.
Now Hunt can’t control and organise a game like Reynolds, and his kicking game is nowhere near as strong. But Hunt is a genuine run-threat.
He doesn’t even need to take the line on that often – defenders know that across his 358-game career, they need to guard against his dummy and right-foot step. That alone opens Brisbane’s attack up and brings Reece Walsh into the game more often.
So, is it a case of horses for courses in terms of playing Reynolds or Hunt at halfback, based on how the opposition defends each week? It’s a big decision for Michael Maguire.
Sticky situation: Why Hynes has a target on him
And just like the Roosters, Manly and Broncos all need strong performances this week, Cronulla and Canberra find themselves staring down being 1-3 by full-time on Sunday afternoon.
That’s hardly ideal for either side. But I’ve seen more in the Raiders form so far this year – for mine the Sharks are under more pressure.
Canberra’s forecast is fine and clear (no monsoons this week) and should suit the Raiders unpredictable, offload-based attack.
For the Sharks, this is the start of a tough run – next week they face the high-flying Warriors before travelling to Perth to face the Roosters coming off a bye. Cronulla could easily lose all three of those games and be in all-sorts.
For mine, Nicho Hynes is in the spotlight this week. There’s no coach who attacks an opposition playmaker or exploits them as well as Ricky Stuart. It’s exactly how he used to play – sledging, niggling and making your life a nightmare with his back-rower as a battering ram.
Sticky will be on the sideline this week, so it’s Hudson Young who Nicho has to worry about.
That’s exactly what happened this time last year when Cronulla went down the highway and lost a last-second thriller, with Hudson targeting Nicho all night.
It will be the same on Sunday afternoon – Hudson will be out to niggle, agitate and bully Nicho Hynes, and it will take a lot of composure and guts for the Sharks No.7 to rise above it.
Andrew Johns is an Immortal, a Newcastle great and a commentator for Channel Nine