The Albanese government has unveiled a daring overhaul of property tax to slug investors and help more first homebuyers enter the market – a move likely to be felt most acutely by Queenslanders.
In what Treasurer Jim Chalmers described as the “most important and ambitious budget in decades”, negative gearing will be limited to new builds and the capital gains tax concession reduced.
The tax changes will allow 75,000 more Australians to become homeowners in the next decade, according to treasury modelling included in budget papers announced on Tuesday night.
Although the forecast analysis doesn’t include a state-by-state breakdown, it was expected to offer relief to Queensland where experts say the housing affordability crisis is most severe after persistent interstate migration drove property prices higher.
“We’re delivering a fairer tax system for workers, first home buyers and future generations,” Chalmers said in his speech to parliament.
“This will help rebalance a system which is more generous to assets than it is to labour. And help rebalance a system where house prices have decoupled from incomes.
“Since 1999, house prices have risen over 400 per cent, more than twice as fast as average incomes.”
The current 50 per cent capital gains tax discount will be replaced next year with inflation-adjusted indexation featuring a new minimum 30 per cent tax rate on capital gains.
The overhaul will be felt at the top end of the Queensland market where new investor loans has significantly outpaced first home buyer loans, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The measure was intended to rein in price growth, which has routinely recorded annual double-digit jumps in Queensland, and comes as treasury expects the flow of interstate migrants to continue with more than 75,000 arrivals by mid-2030.
By June 30, 14,900 people are expected to have moved to Queensland from other states as 21,400 leave NSW. Treasury predicts this wave of interstate migrants to then jump to 17,300 by the middle of 2027, and gradually rise to 19,500 across the forward estimates.
By comparison, NSW will lose between 20,500 and 21,400 each year by 2030 while Victoria will add between 3000 and 3300 a year.
Queensland’s total population will grow from 5.7 million at the end of 2025 to 5.9 million by the end of 2027 and 6.1 million by the end of 2030.
And while new arrivals crunch the housing market, older Queenslanders have clogged the state’s hospitals and heaped pressure on the health system due to a lack of space at aged care facilities.
Chalmers says the $3.7 billion allocated in the budget for aged care will create 5000 more beds each year through to 2030, although the modelling also doesn’t include a state-by-state breakdown.
Elsewhere, Queensland will receive significantly more cash from the federal government for road infrastructure than NSW and Victoria per person.
Over the forward estimates to mid-2030, Queensland will receive $13.5 billion, about $2272 per person, while NSW and Victoria will receive $10.8 billion and $8.27 billion – about $1217 and $1127 each resident respectively.
Included in the roads funding for Queensland is $812.5 million for stage two of the Bruce Highway – Gateway Motorway to Dohles Rocks Road – in Brisbane’s north.
However, stage two of this project will be delivered through a 50:50 funding split between Queensland and the Commonwealth, which has infuriated the Crisafulli government.
Queensland Treasurer David Janetzki said the Labor government had promised to restore the 80:20 funding split ahead of last year’s federal election.
“Canberra has overlooked Queensland, instead funnelling infrastructure funding to southern states ignoring Queensland’s contribution to national prosperity,” he said in a statement to this masthead on Tuesday night.
“The Queensland economy is doing the nation’s heavy lifting, yet the Federal Government has underfunded our roads, rail, health and housing.”
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