On the blasted heath that is current British politics, weeks don’t come much crazier than last one. I arrived in London on Thursday. Shortly before I left Australia, the news broke of yet another high-profile Tory defection to Nigel Farage’s insurgent Reform Party. This time it was Nadhim Zahawi, who served briefly as chancellor of the exchequer under Boris Johnson, and was later chairman of the Conservative Party.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s polling numbers are poor, as are those of his Labour government.Credit: Bloomberg
Then, not five hours after I landed at Heathrow, a much bigger story broke. The Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch announced on social media that she had sacked Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, and suspended him from the party for “gross disloyalty”.
The circumstances of Jenrick’s dismissal had none of the artful Machiavellianism usually associated with the Conservatives. It was pure comedy. Apparently, an aide had left a copy of his resignation speech on a photocopier, where it was discovered by an opposition staffer. Badenoch acted swiftly and brutally, depriving Farage and Jenrick of the chance to reveal the defection in their own time and with maximum impact. Later that day, a flustered Jenrick appeared at a hasty press conference with Farage to confirm it, but Badenoch had already stolen first-mover advantage.
Jenrick is not just another random Tory malcontent. He was runner-up in the leadership election after the Conservative wipeout at the 2024 election: in the final run-off ballot of grassroots members he secured 44.5 per cent. In particular, his uncompromising line on immigration appealed to the party faithful. There has since been a near-to-universal expectation that Badenoch would not last the distance to the next election (due in 2029); were she to fall, Jenrick was the standout favourite to replace her. Suddenly, he was gone.
Ordinarily, for an opposition to be deserted by its second-most important politician would be a devastating blow. But that is not how it played out, at least initially. Badenoch was praised for swift and decisive action. Meanwhile, Jenrick’s botched defection cast him as a Basil Fawlty-like political incompetent (as well as a shameless liar). Instantly, all the pressure was taken off Badenoch’s leadership. With her main rival gone, and no other member of shadow cabinet seen as a serious threat, she was overnight transformed from an interim leader swinging in the breeze to the person who will take the Tories to the next election. Far from blowing up the Conservative Party as he intended, Jenrick’s bungled betrayal stabilised it.
Former Conservative MP Robert Jenrick and Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage greet each other as they hold a press conference to announce Jenrick’s defection to Reform UK.Credit: Getty Images
This came at a time when Badenoch’s political standing had begun, slightly but perceptibly, to lift. The Tories recently overtook Labour in the polls – albeit by the barest of margins, 20 per cent to 19 per cent. She is generally acknowledged to have consistently got the better of Prime Minister Keir Starmer in question time. Starmer, a wooden performer whose style is hectoring and never nimble, looks and sounds like a preachy human rights lawyer from modish north London, which is precisely what he is.
The sharpening of Badenoch’s attack has coincided with the recruitment to her office of the former Victorian MP Tim Smith. Smith, who left parliament under a cloud in 2022 following a drink-driving incident (he was shadow attorney-general at the time), has enjoyed impressive success in British politics, including as senior producer at the highest-rating Sunday morning political talk show, on the conservative network GB News, and now as the person credited with bringing Australian ruthlessness to the effete world of Tory politics. (In the interim, he had a stint as senior adviser to Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel – not a gig for the faint-hearted.)
Smith, like Lynton Crosby and Isaac Levido before him, is the latest in the well-established tradition of the Conservatives recruiting Aussie brains and political muscle to smarten up their operation. The pragmatic Tories sadly accept that, as with cricket, Australians are just a lot better at politics.
