Stan Choe
US stocks are swinging again as oil prices remain high because of uncertainty about when the war with Iran could end.
The S&P 500 fell 0.1 per cent in afternoon trading, coming off its worst week since the war with Iran began. The Dow Jones was up 136 points, or 0.3 per cent, in afternoon trade, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.5 per cent lower. The Australian sharemarket is set to open higher, with futures at 4.55am AEDT pointing to a gain of 22 points, or 0.3 per cent, at the open. The ASX lost 0.7 per cent on Monday. The Australian dollar was trading at US68.58¢ at 5.20am AEDT.
That followed gains for stock markets in much of Europe, but caution was still prevalent throughout financial markets. After jumping to an initial gain of 0.9 per cent, the S&P 500 quickly erased virtually all of it before drifting between small gains and losses.
Oil prices remain central to the movement on Wall Street. Brent, the international standard, was 0.9 per cent lower at $US111.69 a barrel at 5.07am AEDT, while US oil was 3.4 per cent higher to $US102.98.
The mixed movements followed a whirlwind of action in the war over the weekend, including an entry into the fighting by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The main issue for investors is whether oil and natural gas can resume their full flow from the Persian Gulf to customers worldwide and prevent a brutal blast of inflation.
Shortly before the US stock market opened for trading Monday, President Donald Trump said on his social media network that “great progress has been made” with “A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.”
But he also threatened the possibility of “blowing up and completely obliterating” Iranian power plants if a deal is not reached shortly and if the Strait of Hormuz, an integral waterway for the flow of oil, is not opened immediately.
The statement fit and condensed last week’s pattern, where Trump would tout progress being made in talks and offer some optimism for the market, only for doubts to rise quickly afterward about whether the war can end soon.
All the back and forth has some investors saying they’re giving Trump’s pronouncements less weight than before. But stock prices are nevertheless cheaper than they were before the war, which has some investors waiting for an opportune time to buy.
The S&P 500 finished last week 8.7 per cent below its all-time high, which was set in January. The Dow and Nasdaq both were more than 10 per cent below their records, a steep-enough fall that professional investors call it a “correction.”
Taking into account how much profits are expected to grow in the coming year for companies in the S&P 500, the index looks 17 per cent cheaper than before the war, by one measure. That’s in a similar range as where prior growth scares for the market ended, as long as they didn’t result in a recession or the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley.
That’s one of the signs that the strategists led by Michael Wilson point to as “growing evidence the S&P 500 correction is getting closer to its ending stages.”
Of course, the Federal Reserve could upset that if it decides oil prices are threatening to stay high for long enough that it needs to raise interest rates. Higher interest rates would help keep a lid on inflation, but they would also slow the economy and push down on prices for all kinds of investments.
Treasury yields have been leaping in the bond market since the war began because of such worries, but they eased somewhat on Monday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.34 per cent from 4.44 per cent late on Friday. That’s a significant move for the bond market and offers some breathing room for Wall Street. But it remains far above its 3.97 per cent level from before the war.
Easing bond yields can help the real estate industry in particular. Not only do they lower borrowing costs, they can also make real-estate stocks that pay relatively high dividends look more attractive relative to bonds. Alexandria Real Estate, which owns megacampuses for life-sciences companies across the country, rose 0.7 per cent.
Alcoa jumped 8.8 per cent for one of the market’s biggest gains on speculation it could get more business after attacks damaged rival aluminum facilities in the Middle East over the weekend.
Sysco fell 15 per cent after it said it was buying Jetro Restaurant Depot for $21.6 billion in cash and enough Sysco shares to value the company at about $29.1 billion.
In stock markets abroad, the FTSE 100 in London climbed 1.6 per cent, and the CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.9 per cent. That followed drops of 3 per cent for Seoul’s Kospi, 2.8 per cent for Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 and 0.8 per cent for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng.
AP
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