Fresh polling has found voters are losing support for Labor as rising cost-of-living pressures — especially surging petrol and diesel prices — place pressure on household budgets, as the Coalition makes gains the two-party preferred gap.
A Roy Morgan poll surveyed 1,664 Australians from March 16-22, a turbulent week marked by global energy shocks linked to the US–Israel war on Iran, as well as a lifting of the cash rate to 4.10 per cent to tackle climbing inflation.
The poll found Labor’s two-party preferred vote slipped 1.5 percentage points to 52.5 per cent, while the Coalition gained 1.5 points to reach 47.5 per cent.
When preferences were allocated based on voting patterns from the last federal election, Labor’s advantage shrank further to just one percentage point, but led the pollster to conclude that under either method, Labor would likely return to government with a narrow majority if a federal election were to be held at the time of polling.
Analysis of the primary vote found dwindling support for Labor (-1.5 per cent) was surpassed only by Independents/Other Parties (-2 per cent), with both holding 27 per cent and 10.5 per cent of the vote respectively.
In contrast, the Coalition (25.5 per cent), One Nation (23.5 per cent) and the Greens (13.5 per cent) all saw a boost in voter preference, with the Coalition lifting its primary vote by 1.5 per cent, while the latter parties lifted their primary votes by one per cent each.
The poll also found the majority of Australians (59.5 per cent) believed the country was “going in the wrong direction” compared to only 27 per cent who believed the opposite.
It comes as the organisation’s government confidence rating increased slightly to 67.5 points – 30 points below the neutral level of 100 – amid the escalating war in the Middle East.
More to come.
