An American special forces soldier has been charged after profiting more than half a million dollars from allegedly placing bets on the timing and outcome of a US operation that led to the dramatic arrest of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, is accused of creating an account on Polymarket – the world’s largest prediction market on future events – and making 13 bets that totalled about USD$33,000 (AUD$46,000) between December 27, 2025 to January 26.
The alleged bets “all took the ‘YES’ position” that stated American forces would be in Venezuela, that Maduro would be “out”, the US will invade, and President Donald Trump would “invoke war powers” against the South American nation all by January 31.
An indictment unsealed in a New York court on Friday said Van Dyke had allegedly used classified information to profit USD$409,881 ($AUD575,000).
The money was then allegedly transferred to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before being deposited into a newly created online brokerage account, court documents say.
The soldier had been involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve that saw Maduro, 63, and his wife, Cilia, 69, snatched by commandos from their compound on January 3, after US airstrikes were carried out across Venezuela before dawn.
Maduro is facing serious federal charges related to narco-terrorism and drug trafficking, the latter which has seen US strike multiple boats suspected of smuggling drugs.
After the Trump administration confirmed the success of the military operation, reports of unusual trading relating to Maduro surfaced online and in the news.
“Van Dyke then took steps to conceal his identity as the trader in the Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets,” the US Department of Justice said in a statement.
“On or about January 6, 2026, for example, Van Dyke asked Polymarket to delete his Polymarket account, falsely claiming that he had lost access to the email address to which the account had been associated.
“That same day, Van Dyke changed the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an email address that was not subscribed to in his name, and which he had created on or about Dec. 14, 2025.”
The 38-year-old had signed nondisclosure agreements in which he promised to “never divulge, publish, or reveal by writing, words, conduct, or otherwise … any classified or sensitive information” relating to military operations.
He has been charged with three counts of violating the Commondity Exchange Act and one each of wire fraud and unlawful monetary transaction.
The North Carolina native faces a maximum of 60 years in prison.
Acting Attorney-General Todd Blanche said US servicemen and women are prohibited from using highly sensitive information for personal financial gain.
“Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply,” he said.
FBI Director Kash Patel said it is “clear no one is above the law” and that federal authorities “will do whatever it takes” to defend the homeland.
“Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable,” he warned.
