As the war around Iran intensifies with no end in sight, analysts are ruminating whether the conflict will have a long-term impact on security dynamics far beyond the Middle East.
A lot has been said about this being the “start of WWIII”, but the alarmism is yet to materialise in the form of a directly related conflict outside the war-scarred region.
Nevertheless, there are still major concerns being raised by defence experts that the already-engaged US military could face increasing strain on its military resources should another urgent flashpoint arise.
That question has particular relevance in the Asia-Pacific, where US naval and air power lord over the region’s security balance. Donald Trump has already ordered crucial military assets away from its longtime ally South Korea to bolster the front in the Persian Gulf, while questions over resources swirl over the obvious cost imbalances involved in intercepting Iran’s relatively cheap drones.
Some say the Trump administration got cocky after the relatively flawless Nicolas Maduro operation in Venezuela and have now overcommitted to a fight that was initially estimated to take a matter of days.
Mr Trump boldly asserts it will all be over in “four to five weeks”, meaning mid-April. But we all know how good the US is in the predictions department.
In 2003, then-US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously declared the Afghanistan hostilities over, but troops would still remain active there for another 20 years.
“Wars in the Middle East rarely unfold according to the timelines leaders announce at the start,” says Daniel Byman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
At two weeks in, Iran’s only option is to choke the world economy and draw out the madness to heap more pressure on the US and its allies.
Meanwhile, for Western-aligned countries that rely on US security guarantees, the reality of the war in the Middle East is that it inevitably draws attention to the region’s most sensitive issue.
China ‘watching closely’ as US ‘stretched thin’
China has long maintained that Taiwan is part of its territory and has repeatedly pushed for “reunification”, refusing to rule out the use of force if Taiwan formally declares independence. Military exercises around the island have frequently been framed by Beijing as warnings to what it calls “Taiwan independence” forces.
Former US Navy submarine officer Bryan Clark, now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, has warned that managing multiple crises could stretch Washington’s forces to snapping point.
“The US Navy is stretched thin,” he told Reuters. “The fleet is not sufficient to keep a steady presence in every theatre.”
China has dipped its toes into early negotiations, calling for peace in the Middle East but nonetheless enjoying its position outside the chaos.
Fears that Iran’s close-knit allies like Moscow and Beijing would rush to Iran’s side have been abated for now. Chinese strategists have shown little appetite to intervene on Iran’s behalf, which could bring “high costs, limited gains and unpredictable risks”.
But analysts say Beijing is using the crisis in another way. It is a juicy opportunity to study how the US conducts modern conflicts, particularly in its use of missiles, drones and naval power.
“Beijing will be watching closely,” says Jennifer Parker, a former officer in the Royal Australian Navy and defence expert at Sydney’s Lowy Institute.
“China has exploited previous episodes of US distraction.”
The rapid militarisation of islands in the South China Sea while the US pursued the war in Afghanistan presents a good example of how China’s glacial approach to military strategy works.
Meanwhile, Taiwan is still keeping eagle-eyed as the world remains transfixed on Iran. The nation’s defence ministry reported a renewed spike in Chinese military activity near the island on Sunday.
The ministry says it followed an unusual lull in flights over the previous two weeks that had puzzled analysts.
Twenty-six Chinese military aircraft were spotted around the island on Saturday, with 16 entering Taiwan’s northern, central and southwestern Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
The ministry also said seven Chinese naval vessels were operating nearby.
Elsewhere in the region, North Korea continues to beat its chest and throw barbs at the West. The hermit kingdom has ramped up its press rounds in recent weeks, launching a new barrage of ballistic missiles while the US and South Korea held joint military exercises. Kim Jong-un, who is appearing in an increasing amount of photos of his daughter and suspected heir, authorised ten missiles that travelled roughly 340 kilometres before landing in the Sea of Japan.
Responding to the tests, Japan’s defence minister Shinjiro Koizumi said North Korea’s brazen behaviour “threatens the peace and security of Japan, the region and the international community”.
North Korea’s leadership has also issued an obligatory round of warnings, with Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of leader Kim, criticising the US-South Korean military exercises.
She warned they could lead to “unimaginably terrible consequences”.
For Aussies, the immediate problem being presented is the oil crisis. Analysts are now warning that Australia could be forced into rationing fuel if the Middle East crisis persists.
According to the International Energy Agency, about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the under-fire Strait of Hormuz every day 2025, accounting for roughly 25 per cent of global seaborne oil trade.
The war has severely disrupted traffic through the waterway, and alternative routes for moving oil are limited.
In an attempt to stabilise supply, the IEA’s 32 member countries agreed last week to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, a temporary measure designed to ease pressure on global markets.
That buffer will only last so long.
