The Strait of Hormuz seems set to become a Gallipoli moment for the United States.
Iran continues to block the narrow shipping passage through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply must flow.
US military intelligence now warns it has seen the pariah Islamic Republic preparing to deploy mines, drones and missiles to make the passage even more perilous.
Iran’s turning its long-telegraphed threat into reality appears to have caught the Pentagon on the hop.
It doesn’t have enough of the right warships in the right places to do anything about it. At least not for several more weeks.
And even then, these warships will be placing themselves at great risk.
“It’s at this point the Dardanelles analogy becomes operative,” argues trade specialist Phil Radford for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
“The only reason the Gallipoli campaign was attempted in 1915 was because the most powerful navies of the day had failed to force a passage through the narrow Dardanelles.”
The only solution facing the allied forces then was “boots on the ground”, which led to the disastrous 11-month campaign and 500,000 casualties before the eventual forced retreat.
“Strategic priorities, like opening the Strait of Hormuz and securing what remains of Iran’s nuclear stockpile, will likely require some ground troops if no diplomatic options are pursued,” Middle East Institute analyst Brian Katulis told The Wall Street Journal.
“What we are looking at is potentially a very messy situation.”
Choked artery
The Pentagon claims Iran’s navy has been destroyed. But the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
That’s because Iran has long built up a network of fortifications on the cliffs and islands overlooking the 50km waterway and 10km wide shipping channel.
President Trump now sounds worried.
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” he posted to social media.
“Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!”
Shipping analysts report Iran has attacked at least 16 vessels so far in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.
It’s a threat that has already produced what the International Energy Agency calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
Things will get worse before they get better.
The US Navy has reportedly turned down requests to escort convoys of ships through the strait. The Wall Street Journal reports it has assessed the passage as too dangerous.
The Trump Administration’s Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, told media on Wednesday that Hormuz would reopen “hopefully in the next few weeks”.
But the Iranian regime knows this is the one ace it holds up its sleeve.
“Get ready for oil to be $US200 a barrel,” proclaimed an Iranian military spokesman.
Analysts say that would plunge the world into a global recession.
“Iran has shown how easily a strategically positioned country can create global economic shocks,” international trade expert Alex Mills writes for the Atlantic Council think-tank.
“The geopolitical genie is out of the bottle: by capitalising on geography to disrupt global trade, countries can strengthen their strategic position at relatively low cost.”
Throttling the world
Secretary of War Peter Hegseth is dismissive of the Hormuz threat.
“The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that,” he told media on Friday night.
Such shooting, however, has already set cargo ships alight and caused the death of at least one crewman.
“They are exercising sheer desperation in the straits of Hormuz,” Hegseth added.
“(It is) something we’re dealing with. We have been dealing with it and don’t need to worry about it.”
But the risk remains.
And the US Navy appears unready, unable, or unwilling to help.
“The United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” President Trump insisted on March 3.
That now appears to be at least another fortnight away.
“We’re simply not ready,” Energy Secretary Wright explained Thursday.
“It’ll happen relatively soon, but it can’t happen now.”
That may not be soon enough.
“The ability to hold and maintain control of shipping lanes creates immense economic pressure with few practical countermeasures, quickly turning global trade into a geopolitical hostage situation, not just for those directly involved in the conflict, but for the global economy at large,” warned Mills.
The convoy quandary
Running tanker escorts likely involve convoys of several enormous bulk oil carriers bracketed by warships. Helicopters and aircraft would be needed for close support.
These will all be subject to surprise attack from short range. Drones, missiles and artillery are scattered through the surrounding hills. And GPS navigation is being jammed.
“Iran’s task is not militarily taxing,” argues Radford.
“Iran needs only to target the tankers, which can be hit with little accuracy. Iran’s forces can ignore the escorts. Just a few hits on a few tankers are enough to force mercantile insurers to bail out.”
Mine clearance will also be a serious problem.
The US Navy removed its dedicated minehunters from the Persian Gulf just weeks ago, returning them to the US for scrapping. It now only possesses four such ships. And those are based in Japan.
Australia’s Navy is not in a position to help.
Its three air warfare frigates carry far fewer defensive missiles than their US equivalents. The ANZAC class general-purpose frigates are specialised for hunting submarines.
It does, however, have a handful of mine-countermeasures vessels.
“Australia’s limited number of deployable surface combatants means any maritime commitment must be weighed carefully,” warns maritime security specialist Jennifer Parker.
“With naval capability already stretched, sending ships to The Gulf would risk undermining preparedness for potential crises closer to home while offering only limited additional capability to the effort.”
Political minefields
“While some analysts argue that Iran lacks the power to fully control the strait, Iran’s strategy does not depend on naval control,” argues Chatham House analyst Nitya Labh.
“If Iran can launch missile or drone attacks from its coast, it can impose enough risk to disrupt shipping.”
That’s exactly what has been happening over the past three years in the Red Sea.
Random Houthi missile and drone attacks have prompted most shipping to take alternative, longer routes.
What remains to be seen is if Iran’s decades of preparation for this eventuality can withstand near-constant aerial bombardment from US forces.
It is believed to have possessed some 5000 sea mines before the war began. These could be deployed by midget submarines, speedboats, and fishing boats.
The Pentagon “continues today to hunt and strike mine-laying vessels and mine storage,” US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, said Wednesday.
That may not be enough.
“Given the strong tides through the strait, Iran can also float mines into the waters from various points,” argues Radford.
“Clearing mines is always slow and difficult,” adds Massachusetts Institute of Technology political scientist Professor Caitlin Talmadge.
“Doing it during a full-blown war, while facing threats from land-based antiship cruise missiles, drones, and other Iranian naval assets, would be exceedingly dangerous.”
The Gallipoli scenario
When the world’s most powerful navies failed to force passage through the Dardanelles in World War I, the only option was to attempt to seize the high ground on either side. It produced a disaster that resonates through history as the ANZAC story.
“But occupying the Gallipoli peninsula doesn’t begin to compare with occupying more than 150 km of Iranian shoreline,” Radford points out.
“There is no defensible line that US forces could ever secure. The attempt would be Gallipoli times 10, with the difference that the Iranians could always pull back to interior lines of defence. It is inconceivable that the US would try.”
The alternative is combat mine clearance.
“It took the United States and its allies 51 days to clear 907 mines off the Kuwaiti coast in 1991 — and that was after The Gulf War was over and with the advantage of minefield maps provided by the defeated Iraqis,” points out Professor Talmadge.
“It is quite possible that (Iran) would still be able to threaten US mine clearance platforms with antiship cruise missiles, drones, and small boat attacks. Indeed, bringing those platforms within reach would likely be one of Iran’s larger goals.”
So the inconceivable may become a necessity.
“The United States might decide that it needs to control the Iranian coast by inserting Marines or special operations forces — but the entry of ground forces would raise the risk of casualties and quagmire,” Professor Talmadge concludes.
