‘A deliberate strike’
Polish airspace has been violated many times since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but never on this scale in Poland or anywhere else in NATO territory. Drone fragments were found 554 kilometres into Polish territory, deeper than any previous incursion.
The incident, which occurred during a heavy Russian air campaign against Ukraine, has raised a fresh test of Trump’s willingness to take a tougher stance against Russian President Vladimir Putin as he tries to end the war in Ukraine, as well as Trump’s commitment to a fellow NATO ally.
Polish firefighters inspect a house which was damaged by multiple Russian drone strikes in Wyryki.Credit: AP
The foreign ministers of Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania published a joint statement calling the incursion “a deliberate and co-ordinated strike constituting an unprecedented provocation and escalation of tension”.
But the Kremlin said it had nothing to add to an earlier statement by Russia’s Defence Ministry, which said Russian forces had not targeted Poland and that it was open to discussing the incident with Polish officials.
Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, also said some of the drones had “lost their course” because they had been jammed.
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The incident has deepened longstanding fears that the three-year war between Poland’s neighbours could precipitate a wider conflict, and it has shown NATO’s vulnerability to drone warfare. NATO is now preparing defensive military measures in response, according to a person familiar with the matter.
If one or two drones had crossed into Polish airspace, it could have been a “technical malfunction”, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said, but it “defies imagination that it could have been accidental” when there were 19.
While proving intent is difficult, “to have several to lose their way is starting to look rather deliberate”, said Thomas Withington, an expert in electronic warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London. A goal, he said, could have been to test NATO’s reaction and its ability to respond to drones.
Putin testing resolve
The European Council on Foreign Relations think tank also concluded that Putin was testing Europe’s resolve against the threat from Moscow as the US demands Europe shoulder more of the financial burden.
Vladimir Putin’s latest drone attacks seem designed to test NATO reaction times.Credit: AP
“Inconsistency between words and deeds seems to have eroded Europe’s credibility in Russia’s eyes,” it said in an analysis.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said “the line between war and peace has been blurred” and that Wednesday’s events were another milestone following Russia’s illegal seizure of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.
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“We now live in an age of uncertainty,” Stubb said.
NATO has remained cautious.
“We do not yet know if this was an intentional act or an unintentional act,” the alliance’s supreme allied commander for Europe, US General Alexus Grynkewich, said. “But we will learn lessons. We will learn of things that we need to enhance our posture, to handle these limited incursions.”
Ash Alexander-Cooper, a former specialist military commander and vice president at Dedrone by Axon, which makes technology to detect and neutralise drones, said it was difficult “without hard evidence” to say if Moscow really had intended to fly the drones into Poland.
But, based on what is known about Russian drones and how they respond to electronic warfare, experts said it was highly possible the incursions were deliberate.
NATO and Poland deployed F-35 and F-16 fighter jets and Black Hawk helicopters to shoot down the drones, as well as Soviet-designed MI-24 and MI-17 helicopters. German Patriot missile defence systems in Poland were also placed on alert.
That response, Alexander-Cooper suggested, was economically disproportionate to the threat.
“Firing million-dollar missiles … is not an economical model that can be sustained” against drones that cost tens of thousands of dollars, he said.
If faced with drone swarms like those in Ukraine, there would not be “enough aircraft within the NATO fleet … with enough missiles or enough interceptors to do the job”, he said. The response would also require putting fighter jet pilots, who are in limited supply and expensive to train, in harm’s way, he said.
But Estonian armed forces Commander Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo said it was important to look at “what kind of targets we are defending”, rather than what’s attacking them. The drones may be cheap, but the cost of a missile to repel them may be far outweighed by the damage they can do, he said.
Bloomberg, AP
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