Is Trump really going to level with the PM on what the US-Australia relationship looks like? And will the PM pick up enough about Trump’s intentions to set a firmer course to protect Australia’s interests and foreign policy settings?
Everyone has been genuinely worked up over the fate and future of AUKUS. But the continuing strong bipartisan support for Australia and AUKUS in the House and Senate, plus the ongoing meetings at the highest levels below the president – with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio – have been cleanly executed. Rubio has strongly signalled that the AUKUS deal “will not be terminated”.
If AUKUS was in trouble, there would have been no reason for the PM to announce, with a Trump meeting pending, a multibillion-dollar funding commitment of defence facilities to support AUKUS.
Trump has still not made a definitive statement on AUKUS, even after King Charles, in his state dinner toast, specifically cited the agreement and the virtues of the US-UK-Australia alliance. Trump heard it. Did he get the message?
Trade is the next biggest issue. Trump being Trump, and how he likes to renegotiate even the deals he himself makes and approves (ask Canada and Mexico about their “free trade” deals with the US), Australia should still expect a change to terms.
For all the pomp and ceremony of the UK state visit, Starmer did not get any change to Trump’s tariffs. Even with Starmer committing the UK to defence spending of 5 per cent of GDP, Trump did not retreat on his tariffs. They remain fully in effect.
Loading
If this is Trump’s playbook with the closest of allies, we could see a package on critical minerals from Australia (that Trump covets) – and which would be mutually beneficial – but no cuts in the tariffs Trump imposed, and no restoration of the E-3 work visas for Aussies.
Will Albanese learn from Trump if the president intends to punish Australia further on tariffs, with penalties on pharmaceuticals, and more tariff hikes because of the new rules on the high-tech platforms of Meta, Google, X and others?
The deeper question in any meeting with Trump is how the president apprehends the entirety of the US’s alliance with Australia. These are high stakes.
Does Trump really intend to go further and treat Australia like he has treated Canada, South Korea and India? Their leaders are very angry and disappointed with Trump. India’s Narendra Modi decided to join President Xi Jinping of China, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un at the recent celebrations in Beijing.
Loading
Will the PM get a direct and clear sense from the president as to his endgame with China, and where he stands on Taiwan, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific? Australia needs to understand where Trump is headed on all those issues. As the closest of the US’s allies in Asia, Australia deserves to know.
If this meeting finally occurs and gets to those levels of dialogue, then the PM and his government can make the best decisions about how to carry forward the alliance with the US. Which is exactly what is needed right now.
We will get a sense of the true state of play in the relationship if there is a statement after whatever encounter occurs – or not – in New York that, indeed, the stars are still aligned in the firmament of ties between the US and Australia, and the two leaders want to have a good talk on all the issues before them. That they recognise so much is at stake for the security and prosperity of both nations, and that this is too important a moment to miss.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.
