Neil Evans
Track heavy 10 and rail out 3m.
Race 1
12. Sweet Marlene is a locally trained mare chasing a breakthrough win in her 19th start, but emerges as the best-value wet-tracker in the race. Has placed in three from four this prep all on rain-affected ground, so she’s fitted for the conditions despite drawing the outside barrier, and has a 50 per cent strike rate in the money. 1. Adequate Eze is a big watch resuming for a second prep in ground he has a real leaning towards. Beat all but the winner in three runs to start his career late last year. 2. Ordinary Angel is a second-start improver with gear changes over more ground, and with a far superior jockey taking over. 8. Apparently draws the inside third-up, and will relish coming back from tougher provincial opposition. 6. Blackstone Plaza is a two-year-old by Capitalist and bred to handle the going. Can run a race fresh at big odds. 7. Sunstaz well into her prep goes into wider exotic plays.
How to play it: Sweet Marlene to win.
Race 2
9. British Gem is an improving filly from the leading provincial stable primed to break through third-up with blinkers going on. Has hit the line late into a place in two runs this prep against better opposition, is bred to handle the going and looks ideally placed over more ground with the top country jockey aboard. 7. Thunder Lights is a threat deep into his campaignand from an economical draw. Has run into the money in his last two, and carries only a half kilo more coming back from a tougher provincial race. 8. Amazigh Torque is better placed at her fourth start over a longer trip. 5. Prince Of Wants, over further at his third start, and 11. White Waves, also looking for further at her second start and a stablemate of the top selection, are both capable of filing the minor money.
How to play it: British Gem to win.
Race 3
6. Zouboy is a provincial-based three-year-old by renowned wet-track sire Zousain, which can make a big statement on debut. Improved to finish close-up in a second trial over 1000m and drawn to stay away from the inside. 7. Love You Anyway has knocked up playing the bridesmaid all year, finding one better in her last five, the majority beaten by a narrow margin. Naturally very honest on rain-affected going and comes back from a tougher race. The market will tell a story aboard provincial mare 9. Oakfield Mars, resuming without a trial. The same goes for stablemate 13. Star Of Indigo, which returns off a long break for just her second start but has trialled OK. 1. Hey Kalumba is a big betting watch on debut behind two progressive trials, while 3. Mr Cornstar gets the blinkers on third-up.
How to play it: Zouboy to win.
Race 4
2. Oakfield Neptune is a lightly raced mare well placed, resuming off a lengthy break for the Kris Lees-Aaron Bullock combination. Won on debut in heavy going at Newcastle nearly a year ago, and while she never progressed further than Class 1 in that initial prep, that was in smarter company compared with an average country Class 2 here. By prolific wet-track sire Deep Field, and behind two improving trials, she emerges as the one to beat. 3. Too Hot To Torque is also lightly raced and wasn’t far away resuming as a hot favourite in a weak race. Natural improver, but under the odds. 4. Storm Merchant is a stablemate of the former which also went under as a short-priced favourite when resuming, but only win so far came in soft ground on debut at the Gold Coast last spring. Be shocked if the winner comes from anywhere else, but include 9. Dubalene, deep into her campaign, and at huge odds 7. Secret Keeper, down significantly in weight, in trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Oakfield Neptune to win.
Race 5
2. Diva Rouge is a progressive provincial mare that loves wet tracks and will be hard to stop chasing a third consecutive win. Bolted in from the front at Coffs 24 days ago, and while she carries the biggest weight of her career, still boasts the tactical advantage in these conditions to control it. 5. Lovecats is a filly also on the rise that finished best to claim a weak Class 1 over the border first-up in heavy going. 3. The Magic Man has been finding the line OK all prep. 4. Newy has a liking for rain-affected ground and strikes peak fitness fourth-up. 7. Rupestris is by far the longer priced of the Matthew Dunn-trained pair, but can’t be taken lightly resuming behind two progressive trials and finished last prep with a smart closing win on a soft 7.
How to play it: Diva Rouge to win
Race 6
12. Stiorra represents value on what might become a bottomless surface, stepping up from a win in a weaker race. Her only two wins from 30 starts have come in heavy going, and seemingly the wetter the better. Gets weight relief too, with a stronger and far more experienced jockey taking over in a very tricky race. The betting will be a big indicator around 8. Salma’s Star dropping back from tougher provincial opposition third-up, although unproven in these conditions. 5. Zedari finds a race with less depth third-up, although also unproven on heavy. 10. Magnolia Jewel is drawn to get cover fourth-up. 2. Jewels Statement can improve sharply also fourth-up dropping in grade and with blinkers off, while 4. The Lupercal, back from a deeper race, is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Stiorra to win.
Race 7
9. Too Darn Finesse is an emerging filly from the Kris Lees yard that resumes for a second prep behind two solid provincial trials. Like her Group 1-winning sire, has never seen heavy going, but she is out of an Exceed And Excel mare, so trusting she will plough through it, especially given she finished hard to win on debut late last year. 8. Farnciful is a provincial filly that reloads 24 days between runs after missing last week’s Quirindi meeting. Well placed to make it two wins from her last four in her first full prep, dropping back from deeper provincial company. Has a sound record in soft going. 1. Gaylord is banging on the door for a leading trainer/jockey combination after twice finishing well behind the winner in Class 2 company. That said, he has to carry a massive weight in heavy ground, and threatens to jump under the odds. 2. Ensign Parker is over the odds second-up; while 5. Royal Teens and 6. The Piccolino, who both prefer rain-affected ground, can add value into trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Too Darn Finesse to win.
Race 8
7. Highwire Girl is an improving filly that can overcome a wide draw and claim a second career win fourth-up in another very open race. Drawn to stay out in likely better ground, relishes wet tracks, and was only run down late in similar conditions at Coffs last time out. 2. Archie Maximus has been given 41 days since a dominant maiden win at Grafton as a hot favourite. Bullock takes over in the saddle for the Dunn stable, but under a big weight and still a query in heavy going, wouldn’t be diving into too short a price. 4. Autumn Miss is a stablemate of the former, and value dropping in grade deep into her prep. 1. Damascus Gate is hard fit well into the campaign and is a four-time winner from nine runs on heavy ground. 10. The Comanche is a betting watch at big odds in the going third-up.
How to play it: Highwire Girl each way.
Race 9
4. Alby’s Mate is well over the odds fourth-up in a wide open sprint. The four-year-old dominated from the front to land his maiden here two starts ago before sticking on OK in a better race at Muswellbrook coming off a five-week break. Fitter now, and handles heavy going. 3. Youwroteuponit is a lightly raced ex-Victorian mare bred to handle the going, and having her first outing for the new home track stable. Had a long break after winning on debut 12 months ago and hasn’t started since missing narrowly in a BM 62 at Seymour late last year. Gear changes have been made so watch the market closely. 2. Permission Granted is another one for the Dunn-Bullock team, and crucial betting watch resuming for a second prep behind two improving trials. 1. Agent Max is progressive returning for his second prep, but draws the inside which could well be prone to any pattern in these conditions. 7. Deep Stealth resuming and 8. Hayley’s Rocket second-up head the rest.
How to play it: Alby’s Mate each way.
Best bets
Race 2: (9) British Gem
Race 4: (2) Oakfield Neptune
Best value
Race 3: (6) Zouboy
Supplied by Racing NSW
