A tropical cyclone has developed off Queensland’s far north and was tracking toward the state’s coastline.
Modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology revealed Tropical Cyclone Narelle could further develop into a stronger system before striking the coast to the north of Cairns later in the week with “severe impact”.
On Tuesday night, the category one system was expected to intensify as it tracked toward the coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas, with destructive winds of up to 155km/h possible from Thursday night.
“A severe impact is likely late in the week,” the warning said.
Senior meteorologist Dean Narramore said there was “good consensus” among meteorologists that the storm would make landfall between the Lockhart River and Port Douglas regions.
“At this stage we’re currently forecasting the tropical cyclone category three system approaching and then probably crossing the peninsula coast sometime during Friday afternoon, maybe into Friday night,” he said.
The storm had been held offshore for several days by a trough, which allowed it to grow over warm tropical waters in the Coral Sea between Australia and Vanuatu.
It began steadily tracking westward this week as the trough weakened.
The weather bureau said there was a “high chance” the cyclone would impact communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas – a stretch of coastline measuring roughly 470 kilometres.
Narramore said it was possible the storm could be weakened by cooler sea surface temperatures, strong winds in the upper atmosphere counter to the direction of the cyclone – called wind shears – and dry air added into the system.
“Apart from some of that wind shear, or stronger winds in the atmosphere, in the next 24 hours or so … all the conditions are there,” Narramore said.
“It’s a pretty favourable and supportive environment for it to continue intensifying as it moves towards the Queensland coast.”
Narramore said the system could still “wobble a bit”, as it approached the coast, making it impossible to nail down an exact landing point.
“That’s why it’s important for residents and communities who live pretty much anywhere north of Cairns to make sure they’re staying up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings in the coming days,” he said.
He said the rainfall from the extreme weather system was unlikely to bring more water to saturated parts of the state still recovering from heavy rainfall earlier this month.
If the storm remained intact as it crossed the coast it would be the first cyclone of the current season to make landfall, after Cyclone Koji was downgraded hours before it made landfall.
The weather bureau was set to issue its next update on Wednesday morning.
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