A sweeping $500 million treaty-level agreement with Vanuatu, the so-called Nakamal pact, was put on hold at the last minute. Vanuatu has since announced it will sign a new policing agreement with China.
Then a major defence treaty with Papua New Guinea was put on hold at the last minute – while Albanese was in town to sign the deal – because of concerns within the PNG government. The prime minister has suggested the deal should be signed in coming weeks, but it hasn’t been inked yet.
PNG Prime Minister James Marape and Albanese announcing the nation’s new NRL team, but not a defence treaty.Credit: Kate Geraghty
All these agreements with Pacific nations have the same purpose: to contain China’s rise in the region and to ensure Australia is the exclusive or dominant security partner for these island nations.
But the cash-rich, oversight-poor offers of loans and assistance from the Chinese Communist Party keep coming in the Pacific, and they are stymying Albanese’s agenda, at least in part.
The prime minister’s five-day trip to the US looks to have been a success, mostly. Albanese finally met US President Donald Trump, albeit briefly, and more importantly, secured a White House meeting with the president on October 20. The prime minister will be one of the last three G20 leaders to have a formal meeting with Trump, 11 months since the president’s re-election.
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The Australian government’s plan to implement a social media ban for kids under 16 was praised by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. However, Communications Minister Anika Wells should have been in Brisbane dealing with the Optus Triple Zero mess rather than New York.
Albanese also joined Western nations, including Britain, Canada and France, in officially recognising Palestine, infuriating Israel and the US, and outlined Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction targets.
But he was unable to secure a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in New York to sort out the dispute over whether that country or Australia will host next year’s COP climate change conference.
After listening to Trump’s wild speech to the UN General Assembly, which railed against the climate change “con job”, urging European countries to crackdown on immigration and more, Albanese’s first address to the Assembly emphasised Australia’s multilateral approach, his belief in the need for climate change action and announced a plan to seek a two-year seat on the UN Security Council.
But Albanese’s vision of Australia’s place in the world and his plan to ever-so-slightly reorient Australian foreign policy away from the US – while still standing as a bulwark against China in the Pacific – cannot and will not be realised quickly.
Albanese speaks with Vanuatu counterpart Jotham Napat this month.Credit: Michael Read
Mike Pezzullo, a former Home Affairs secretary, deputy secretary of Defence and a China hawk, is critical of Albanese’s foreign policy approach. He was sacked for misconduct by the current government and may have an axe to grind, but he also has a serious point to make.
The former mandarin argues that everything Albanese does on the world stage is “secondary to the most consequential issue in Australian strategic policy: how to deter and if necessary confront China’s use of military force to achieve its ends in relation to the subjugation of Taiwan and achieving its territorial goals in the East China Sea and South China Sea”.
“We are doing nothing, to say to Trump [that] if you want our help in a potential military conflict, we have to have an ongoing dialogue on this one thing, which is China, and how far you [Trump] are prepared to go to militarily.”
“Trump is mistakenly seen as a transactional figure. He is not. He is a relational figure. He deals in relationships and works best with people that he trusts.”
For Pezzullo, the bottom line is that Albanese and Trump must develop the sort of close relationship where the two men can pick up the phone and talk, or kick out the staff in the Oval Office, close the door and speak one on one.
Although the prime minister and the president have spoken at least six times and will meet soon, until that meeting happens, the pair’s relationship will remain underdone.
At a time when the AUKUS submarine pact is under review and the US is looking to Australia for answers about whether, or to what extent, we would participate or host US forces if a war started over Taiwan, for example, that is a cause for concern.
Albanese is pursuing a more independent foreign policy for Australia and in the capitals across South-East Asia and in Beijing, that will be welcomed.
But the US will probably remain the cornerstone of Australian foreign policy for years to come, no matter who is in the White House.
James Massola is chief political commentator.
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