The proposal has been presented as an ultimatum to Hamas, which has not played a direct role in negotiating the document (although there would undoubtedly have been back-channelling with mediators like Qatar). It calls for Hamas to have no governing role in Gaza and for the strip to be demilitarised. The group would condemn itself to irrelevancy by signing on to the plan, raising the obvious question of why it would do so.
The answer, according to Trump’s blueprint: Hamas’ leaders will no longer face the daily risk of being killed by Israeli bombs and will be offered amnesty and safe passage to third countries if they renounce violence. Hamas could also claim some credit for the release of 250 Palestinians being held on life sentences in Israel and 1700 Gazans who were detained after October 7. It is optimistic to believe this would convince a group that has armed resistance in its DNA to agree its extinction as a fighting force, but Hamas’s leaders are studying the proposals, and key mediators such as Qatar will be exerting pressure.
Then there is Netanyahu, a slippery, calculating operator who always has an eye on his own survival. If Hamas releases all the hostages within 72 hours, as the plan calls for, then he could easily find a pretext to restart the war and continue fighting Hamas – just like he blew up a ceasefire agreement this year. Perhaps by then, with the hostages returned, Trump will have lost interest and moved on to other matters.
A major flaw of the plan is its vague timeframe for Israel’s forces to leave Gaza. At the press conference, Netanyahu made clear it would be a slow, staged withdrawal, offering him a chance to string out the war and delay his day of reckoning over the intelligence and political failures that led to the October 7 massacre two years ago. Even as Trump stood beside him, Netanyahu expressed outright opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state and deep scepticism about the Palestinian Authority governing Gaza, undercutting two points of the plan. Like always, he is playing for time and hoping he can ultimately outsmart Trump.
These risks and deficiencies of this overdue and toweringly ambitious blueprint cannot be ignored. Given the dire situation in Gaza, though, an imperfect plan for peace is better than no plan at all.
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