What the latest numbers prove is that disunity is always death in politics.
Ley has actually done a reasonable job as opposition leader to date, given the Coalition now holds a historically-low 43 seats in the lower house, Anthony Albanese and Labor are riding high with a massive majority, and she has already managed to avoid a formal divorce of the Coalition parties.
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and former frontbencher Andrew Hastie.Credit: Marija Ercegovac
But that will count for nothing if the polling slump continues, even as Ley works to present the opposition as a credible alternative government.
As one of Ley’s allies said on Sunday, “this is what happens when people decide to blow things up, there is collateral damage”.
Conservative opponents of the moderate Ley will likely weaponise these results – and One Nation’s strong primary vote of 12 per cent – to argue the opposition must move to the right ideologically and that Ley is not the person to lead the Coalition.
Her supporters, in turn, will likely argue that Australian elections are won in the political centre ground, not by moving further to the right and fighting culture wars.
Further, they will argue her personal numbers have fallen precisely because of the agitation of conservative rebels in the party room, such as Price and Hastie, and that party leaders always take the polling hit when colleagues destabilise.
The survey also asked whether the Coalition should move to the right, politically, or to the centre ground. The verdict was evenly split: 32 per cent of Coalition voters wanted the party to move right, 33 per cent wanted the party to move to the centre, 12 per cent wanted no change and 23 per cent were unsure.
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The opposition leader will soon unveil a revamped front bench and, in a little over a week, will deliver a second major economic speech that will lay down further markers about the Liberal Party’s agenda.
After moderate success in parliament last week pursuing Communications Minister Anika Wells over her handling of Optus’ Triple 0 debacle, Ley is focused on setting out an alternative agenda for government.
These numbers are not terminal for the opposition leader but if the trend continues, a challenge is inevitable.
One final thought: the survey’s finding that 58 per cent of voters want immigration slashed from current levels, including 57 per cent of Labor voters and 65 per cent of Coalition voters, is a warning and an invitation to both major parties to deal with the discontent that One Nation is already harvesting.
Both parties have already promised to rein in the numbers, but it has not cut through with voters and patience with generations of migrants coming to Australia is wearing thin, as it has across many western democracies.
