New York: An unknown trader has raked in a profit of about $US410,000 ($610,000) after betting Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro would be ousted.
The trader’s account on the Polymarket prediction market built up positions in contracts tied to Maduro’s removal on terms that implied long odds before the weekend raid.
Those wagers, which were worth about $US34,000 before Maduro’s capture, surged in value after news of the US military operation against the Venezuelan leader emerged, Polymarket data shows.
Nicolás Maduro is surrounded by security before his appearance in a New York court.Credit: Bloomberg
The mystery trade is likely to attract scrutiny from US lawmakers who have been pushing for stricter insider trading rules, including a bipartisan effort to potentially ban trading of stocks by lawmakers.
After news of the Maduro trades emerged on Monday (US time), Democratic congressman Ritchie Torres said he planned to introduce a bill this week that would bar elected officials, lawmakers and federal employees from placing bets on prediction market platforms when they could potentially access material non-public information.
London’s Telegraph said it was unclear whether House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson would bring the bill to a vote, or if President Donald Trump would sign it if it passed both houses of Congress.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket offer tradeable yes-or-no contracts that allow users to bet on a wide range of real-world events.Credit: Bloomberg
The anonymous account was created last month, with the trader buying up $US96 worth of contracts on December 27 that would pay off if the US invaded Venezuela by January 31. The trader then made several more similar bets in the following days. More than half of the total bet was placed the evening before the attack, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket offer tradeable yes-or-no contracts that allow users to bet on a wide range of real-world events, ranging from outcomes across sports, entertainment, politics and the economy.
