Updated ,first published
The carpet bombing of Sussan Ley’s leadership has begun in earnest. The chances of her surviving this challenge are diminishing by the hour.
Thursday morning brought further carnage on the opposition frontbench and a slew of resignations, from heavy hitters such as James Paterson and Jonno Duniam through to shadow assistant ministers most Australians would not know.
If Taylor succeeds in snatching the leadership, which looks likely at this stage but is not guaranteed, he will need to immediately deal with a series of internal and external challenges that will test him like never before.
Internally, Taylor will need to deal with angry Ley supporters who may be tempted to undermine him, head off Nationals MPs who will try to drag the Coalition to their preferred policy positions, stop the opposition parties talking about themselves and limit the blood-letting after a frontbench shake-up.
Externally, Taylor will face immediate pressure to release fresh policies in key areas including tax, housing and immigration – the last being an area where Ley was due to make a major policy announcement – so the opposition has a point of difference with Labor.
There is even the prospect of a byelection in Ley’s seat of Farrer. Why would Ley continue in parliament? She is 64, has served 25 years, is entitled to the very generous defined benefits scheme pension, and has young grandchildren. Whether she will stick around if she loses is an open question.
A byelection would be a nightmare scenario for the Coalition, as it could throw up a five-cornered contest between the Liberals, Nationals, Labor, One Nation and an independent.
Taylor released a video on Thursday morning on his social media channels that declared “our country is in trouble. The Labor government has failed and the Liberal Party has lost its way”.
“I’m running to be the leader of the Liberal Party because I believe Australia is worth fighting for,” he said.
The video was notable for the fact that Taylor explicitly declared he wanted the leadership, unlike his post-resignation press conference on Wednesday evening, when the prospect of a challenge was implicit, rather than actually stated.
Ley still has her supporters and they will not go down without a fight.
She promised in her own social media post to “take the pressure off families, fix the budget, and keep Australia safe”. The anger among her supporters about her not being given a fair go in the hardest job in politics – that of opposition leader – is real, and there is some merit to the argument.
The series of resignations on Thursday morning were designed to destabilise Ley and create a sense of crisis, while also creating the impression of momentum and inevitability for a Taylor ascendancy.
It’s a tried and tested method: in 2009, close to a dozen Tony Abbott supporters faxed and emailed their resignations to Malcolm Turnbull’s office over a day or two and badly damaged the opposition leader.
The same tactic was used by Peter Dutton supporters against Malcolm Turnbull in 2018, with senior MPs including Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash and Mitch Fifield pulling the pin.
The result of the looming leadership contest is not a guaranteed Taylor victory, but a change of leader is the most likely outcome.
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