From that moment, the enemy’s strategy changed to one of attrition. Russia in 2023 tried to focus on creating strong defensive lines, which on the one hand was logical, serving to repel our offensive, and on the other hand, distracted our attention from the main goal.
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As Ukraine was pushing back, Russia was implementing a war economy, launching propaganda, changing legislation and building strategic reserves, all while dragging us into a new attritional phase of the conflict for which, just like in 2022, we were not ready.
The events of 2024 and 2025, despite minor achievements at the front, indicate the absolute effectiveness of such a strategy for Russia in its efforts to achieve its political goal.
However, a war of attrition is also being waged on the political front and the economic front. Military actions play an important role in achieving political goals, but are not the final phase.
For example, let’s imagine that Russia completely occupied the Donetsk region. The war would not end, because it would not achieve the political goal. Russia seeks to create conditions to achieve the collapse of Ukraine on military, economic and political fronts simultaneously.
In the absence of a unified vision of a new security architecture on the European continent, without security guarantees and real financial programmes, the war with Russia risks turning into a broader war over the capture of Eastern Europe.
War does not always end with the victory of one side and the defeat of the other. We Ukrainians strive for complete victory, but we cannot reject the option of a long-term end to the war.
Peace, even in anticipation of the next war, provides a chance for political change, for deep reforms, for full recovery, economic growth and the return of citizens.
It is even possible to speak about the beginning of the formation of a safe, protected state through innovation and technology; of strengthening the foundations of justice through the fight against corruption and the creation of an honest court system; and of economic development, including on the basis of international economic recovery programmes.
But all this is impossible without effective security guarantees.
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Such security guarantees could include: Ukraine’s accession to Nato, the deployment of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory or the deployment of a large allied military contingent capable of confronting Russia.
However, there is no talk about this today and, therefore, the war will probably continue. Not only militarily, but also on the political and economic fronts. Russia may change the tools and forms of its aggression, but they will all serve the same purpose.
For us in this situation, the main political goal should be to deprive Russia of the opportunity to carry out aggression against Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi is the Ukrainian ambassador to Britain and was commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces from July 2021 to February 2024.
The Telegraph, London
